The NASCAR Cup Series is at Darlington Raceway Sunday for the 2023 Goodyear 400. Green flag is scheduled to drop shortly after 3 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the 2023 Goodyear 400 odds, and make our expert NASCAR picks and predictions.
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Goodyear 400: What you need to know
- Team Penske driver Joey Logano won the spring Darlington race in May 2022, while Legacy Motor Club driver Erik Jones posted a win in the September race at the “Track Too Tough to Tame”
- Jones is one of just 5 active Cup drivers with 2 or more victories at Darlington
- JGR’s Denny Hamlin leads all active drivers with 4 wins at Darlington, while posting a 7.5 Average-Finish Position (AFP) in 21 career Cup starts
- Richard Childress Racing’s Kyle Busch leads all drivers with 899 career laps led at Darlington, while posting a solid 13.7 AFP with a win, 6 top-5 finishes and 13 top-10 runs in 22 career Cup starts
- JGR’s Martin Truex Jr. has managed 2 wins, 4 top-5 runs and 10 top-10 finishes in 21 career Cup starts at Darlington while turning in a 12.4 AFP
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has struggled in his Cup career at Darlington, posting a dismal 23.7 AFP in 14 career Cup starts with 2 DNFs
- TrackHouse Racing’s Ross Chastain has had a difficult time at Darlington over the years, posting a 21.9 AFP in 7 career Cup starts with just 1 top-10 finish
- 23XI Racing’s Bubba Wallace has also had a tough go of it at Darlington, posting a 22.6 AFP with just 1 top-10 run and 2 DNFs in his 9 career Cup starts at the South Carolina track
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Goodyear 400 – Expert pick
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:27 a.m. ET.
DENNY HAMLIN (+1100) has been the gold standard at Darlington, and you can’t go wrong picking the guy who leads all active drivers both in victories and AFP.
Among the favorites, MARTIN TRUEX JR. (+800) is also a solid bet. He picked up the win at Dover 2 weeks ago, and he has posted back-to-back top-10 finishes, while ending up 8th or better in 4 of his last 5 Cup starts. MTJ has 2 career wins at the track, one of 5 active drivers with multiple victories at the “Lady in Black”. He also has 10 top-10 runs in 21 career Cup starts, while posting an average rating of 103.3.
Goodyear 400 – Long shot
While ERIK JONES (+3000) has had a rather brutal 2023 campaign for the Legacy Motor Club, he can wash it all away at arguably one of his best tracks.
Jones was 21st in Kansas last week, and he has finished 14th or worse in 10 of his 12 Cup starts this season. However, he won the spring race in Darlington last year, and he is a great option to multiply your initial wager by 30.
Goodyear 400 prop pick(s)
ERIK JONES (+190) over Christopher Bell
As mentioned above, Jones has really enjoyed himself over the years at Darlington. In fact, he has a 10.7 AFP in 10 career Cup starts with 2 wins, 5 top-5 finishes and 7 top-10 runs with 132 laps led. He is 3rd among all active drivers in AFP.
Bell has never won at the South Carolina track, while posting just a single top-5, and 2 top-10 finishes in 7 career Cup starts while managing a mediocre 16.3 AFP. For a chance to nearly double up, Jones is worth a roll of the dice.
ERIK JONES (+120) TOP-10 FINISH
If you don’t like Jones in the matchups bet section, he is still a value play at plus-money to finish 10th or better. Jones has finished in the Top 10 in 70% of his 10 career Cup starts, leading 132 laps. There is some risk, obviously, as he has been pretty terrible in 2023, and he also has 2 DNFs in his 10 starts at the track.
TOP TOYOTA – DENNY HAMLIN (+230)
Hamlin is worth playing for a chance to more than double up. I like Hamlin to win this race, but just in case he doesn’t, there is still a very good chance he’ll be one of the top Toyota drivers. Truex Jr. (+275) is also worth a roll of the dice if you’re backing him to win.
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