Players will get one last tune-up before the 2nd major of the year, the PGA Championship, by playing in the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch. The 1st round will begin on Thursday morning, with the tournament concluding on Sunday afternoon.
Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.
Scottie Scheffler is the overwhelming favorite (+333) to win this week, especially after Jordan Spieth withdrew due to a wrist injury. Tyrrell Hatton (+1200) has the 2nd-best odds to win, followed by Tom Kim (+1400) and Jason Day (+1600). The 2-time defending champion, K.H. Lee, is tied with Hideki Matsuyama for the 5th-best odds at +2200. It’s a weaker field than usual with the PGA Championship coming up next week.
TPC Craig Ranch will host this event for the 3rd time, and it’s among the easier courses on the schedule. Lee won the last 2 years with scores of 26-under par and 25-under par, showing what a birdie fest this tournament has become. TPC Craig Ranch, a par 71, features wide fairways and is 7,414 yards in length after the 12th hole was converted from a par 5 to a par 4 this year.
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AT&T Byron Nelson – Top-5 picks
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 12:32 .m. ET.
K.H. Lee (+450)
Lee won this event in each of the last 2 years, and there’s really no reason to believe he won’t find himself in contention again this week against a much weaker field than the ones he beat in 2021 and 2022. Not only is he the 2-time defending champion, but he’s coming off a T-8 finish at the Wells Fargo Championship last week.
Tyrrell Hatton (+260)
Hatton is the 2nd-favorite to win and he comes in after tying for 3rd at the Wells Fargo Championship. He already has 4 top-10s in just 11 starts this season and though he didn’t play this event the last 2 years, his game travels everywhere.
AT&T Byron Nelson – Top-10 picks
Seamus Power (+270)
Power is one of my favorite picks this week and he’s flying a bit under the radar. He came in 9th and 17th at this tournament the last 2 years and he just finished 18th at the Wells Fargo Championship last week. This is the perfect week for him to notch his 2nd win of the season and 4th top-10.
Matt Kuchar (+220)
Kuchar is heating up ahead of the year’s 2nd major, notching 4 straight top-25 finishes with 2 top-10s, including a top-5 at the Valero Texas Open. He’s a horse for this course after finishing 12th and 17th the last 2 years, looking for his 1st top-10 at TPC Craig Ranch.
Tom Kim (+140)
Kim is making his 1st start here, but being such a young player, teeing it up at new courses is nothing new for the 2-time PGA Tour winner. He’s only missed 2 cuts all season and has finished in the top 25 in more than half of his starts (8 of 15), with 4 top-10 finishes to go along with it. Kim may not be long off the tee but he’s deadly accurate, ranking 2nd on tour in driving accuracy (70.1%).
AT&T Byron Nelson – Top-20 picks
Scott Stallings (+200)
In 2 starts at the AT&T Byron Nelson since 2021, Stallings has finished 25th and 3rd, so he’s played well here in recent years. He also has 2 top-35 finishes in his last 3 starts this season, making the cut 11 times in 15 total starts.
Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Nate Lashley (+333)
- Justin Suh (+250)
AT&T Byron Nelson – Matchups
Suggested play is golfer in bold.
Tyrrell Hatton (-125) vs. Jason Day (+100)
Day missed the cut at the Wells Fargo Championship last week, which was his 1st start since the Masters. He said he dealt with vertigo last month and though he feels better now, his game may not be in peak form at the moment. Hatton, on the other hand, is trending upward.
Seamus Power (-110) vs. Si Woo Kim (-110)
Kim missed the cut here last year and finished 55th the year prior, so he lacks a strong track record at this event, which isn’t the case with Power, who already has 2 top-20 finishes here, including a 9th-place in 2021.
AT&T Byron Nelson – Top Australian
Adam Scott (+250)
Scott is the 2nd-favorite to finish as the top Australian, with 9 total players vying for that title. Day is the favorite at +138, with Min Woo Lee being another contender at +350. Lee has never played here and Day’s best finish is a T-51 in 2022, while Scott came in 32nd in his debut last year.
AT&T Byron Nelson – First-round leader
K.H. Lee (+4000)
It’s surprising to see Lee with such long odds to be the 1st-round leader. When he won last year, he opened with a 64 on Thursday, 1 shot better than his opening round of 65 in 2021 when he also won. He loves this course and his scores show it.
Joseph Bramlett (+6600)
Bramlett opened with a 1st-round 64 in 2021, which was just 1 shot off the lead on Thursday. He finished 7th that year and came in 51st here last year. Though he’s not regarded as a top player, he’s 11th on tour in 1st-round scoring this season.
More expert prop bet predictions
Group C winner: Tom Hoge (+350)
Hoge has Aaron Wise (+400), Maverick McNealy (+400), Min Woo Lee (+320) and Taylor Montgomery (+300) in his group this week. Hoge’s best finish at this event is 17th, which came in 2022 and is better than any top finish by the other 4 players in his betting group.
Winning margin: 3 shots (+650)
The winning margin was 3 shots in 2021 when K.H. Lee was crowned the champion at 25-under par. This is a birdie fest at TPC Craig Ranch and with scores expected to be low, it’s worth making a wager on someone to win by 3 shots, especially at +650.
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