Before the Cincinnati Bengals selected Myles Murphy in the 2023 NFL draft, one statistical system projected all of the pro numbers for edge rushers in the class.
It’s fun to look back at that projection now that Murphy landed with the Bengals. Per the SackSEER system, Murphy projected to have 21.9 sacks through five NFL seasons, third among edge rushers in the class.
Nathan Forster of Football Outsiders at ESPN explained:
Murphy’s high projection is almost entirely thanks to his high projected draft position, as his SackSEER projection is a mix of mediocrity and question marks. His production is very similar to Van Ness’. He recorded 18.5 sacks and 5 passes defended in 35 games. However, he does not have the workout numbers Van Ness does. In fact, Murphy has no workout numbers at all. He did not do agility drills at the combine, and he sat out his pro day with a hamstring injury.
What’s interesting is that this projection came before Murphy slipped to the Bengals at No. 28 and before all of his athletic testing numbers were actually available.
Meaning, his projection could have possibly been higher. Even so, he’s not all that far behind Will Anderson’s projected 25.9 — and he was the third overall pick.
Either way, we know Murphy is a stunning athlete at 270 pounds with elite quick-twitch explosiveness right after the snap. He needs refinement, but he’ll get that in Cincinnati while playing in a rotation before taking over as a full-time starter in a few years. It’ll be interesting to see if he can blow past this projection before the five-year mark given his situation and upside, to say the least.
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