The Florida Panthers and Toronto Maple Leafs meet in Game 1 of a best-of-7 Eastern Conference semifinals series Tuesday. Puck drop from Scotiabank Arena is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Panthers vs. Maple Leafs odds, and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.
The Panthers erased a 3-1 series deficit in the Conference Quarterfinals to stun the top overall seed Boston Bruins in 7 games. Florida won a wild 4-3 overtime game at TD Garden on Sunday, and the Panthers have scored 15 goals across the past 3 games. The Over has cashed in 4 in a row for Florida.
LW Matthew Tkachuk and D Brandon Montour finished the opening round tied with 5 goals while Tkachuk added 6 assists to lead with 11 points. Montour had 2 of the team’s 5 power-play goals against the Bruins.
The Maple Leafs have home-ice advantage in this series, but Toronto is just 1-2 in 3 home playoff games and was 3-0 in 3 overtime victories on the road against the Tampa Bay Lightning.
Toronto won 3 of the 4 regular-season meetings against Florida, with 3 of the games going to overtime. Its only loss in the series was on March 29 at Scotiabank Arena in OT. The Over/Under split in the 4 meetings, with the Under cashing in each of the past 2 battles.
RW Mitchell Marner posted 2 goals with a team-best 11 points and a plus-9 rating in the first round, and he led the team with 4 power-play points (1 G, 3 A). C Auston Matthews notched a team-best 5 goals in the first round.
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Panthers at Maple Leafs odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:57 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Panthers +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Maple Leafs -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Panthers +1.5 (-185) | Maple Leafs -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Panthers at Maple Leafs projected goalies
Sergei Bobrovsky (24-20-3, 3.07 GAA, .901 SV%, 1 SO – regular season) vs. Ilya Samsonov (27-10-5, 2.33 GAA, .919 SV%, 4 SO – regular season)
Panthers coach Paul Maurice switched gears after Game 3 in the Boston series, benching G Alex Lyon in favor of Bobrovsky. Bob made a relief appearance in Game 3, and he started the final 4 games, going 3-1-0 with a 3.94 GAA and .891 SV% in his 4 starts and 1 relief appearance.
Samsonov went 4-2-0 with a 3.14 GAA and .900 SV% in the 6-game series win against the Tampa Bay Lightning, with 3 of the final 4 games going to OT (all victories). He saved his best for last, kicking aside 31 of the 32 shots he faced in Game 6 in Tampa.
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Panthers at Maple Leafs picks and predictions
Prediction
Maple Leafs 4, Panthers 3
Moneyline
The MAPLE LEAFS (-160) are moderate favorites, and a little pricey considering the Panthers are steaming in with a lot of confidence.
However, Toronto enters this game brimming with confidence too, as it enters off its first playoff series win since 2004.
Florida has lost 4 straight games in the Conference Semifinals round and is just 2-9 in the past 11 trips to Toronto.
Puck line/Against the spread
The Panthers +1.5 (-185) are just a little too expensive for my liking. I am just not feeling Florida in Game 1, as I think it might have a little bit of a hangover after the emotional series clincher in Boston on Sunday. Plus, the home team is 15-5 in the past 20 meetings between these clubs.
While 3 of the 4 regular-season meetings went to overtime and thus decided by a single goal, you can’t risk nearly 2 times your potential return for some insurance.
PASS.
Over/Under
The OVER 6.5 (-115) is worth a look in this series opener.
Both of these teams brought the offense in Round 1, as the Panthers posted 25 goals in the final 6 games of their series with the Bruins and allowed 3 or more goals in each of the 7 outings. The Over cashed in the final 4 games and 5 of the final 6 in the round.
The Leafs scored 23 goals and allowed 21 goals in their 6-game series with the Lightning. The Over cashed in the first 4 games of the series before defense took over in Games 5 and 6.
The Over is 10-4-1 in the past 15 meetings between the Panthers and Leafs, including 5-1-1 in the past 7 battles in Toronto.
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