AS Roma (17 wins, 9 losses, 5 draws) welcomes AC Milan (16-7-8) to Stadio Olimpico Saturday. Kickoff for this Serie A match is set for noon ET. Below, we preview BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the AS Roma vs. AC Milan odds, and make our best soccer bets, picks and predictions.
Roma has been strong at Stadio Olimpico, going 10-1-4 at home this season. It averages 1.39 goals per game and allows .94 per game in league play. Roma is led in the attack by Argentinian star F Paulo Dybala with 11 goals in 20 starts. Roma, which sits 5th in Serie A, has averaged 2 goals per game over its last 4 league games and has won 2 in a row at home.
Milan is a mere 6-5-5 on the road this season and sits 4th on the table. It has scored 1.65 goals per game (51 on the season) and has allowed 1.19 per game (37). It is led in the attack by F Rafael Leao, who has 12 goals in 23 starts. Milan has a rough 3-game losing streak in league play in late January, but it is 2-0-2 in its last 4.
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AS Roma vs. AC Milan odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 6:56 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: AS Roma +175 (bet $100 to win $175) | AC Milan +175 (bet $100 to win $175) | Draw +200
- Over/Under: 2.5 (O: +135 | U: -190)
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AS Roma vs. AC Milan picks and predictions
Prediction
AS Roma 2, AC Milan 1
Moneyline (ML)
LEAN AS ROMA (+175).
Simply put, Roma has been better at home than Milan has been on the road, and at this value, backing Roma makes sense.
Roma has won 7 of its last 8 at home, and in all 7 wins, it has not allowed a goal. It has outscored its opponents in its last 8 home games a total of 16-4.
Milan, on the other hand, has lost 4 of its last 7 road matches and has been outscored 8-11. Put it all together and take AS ROMA (+175) to come out on top at home.
Over/Under (O/U)
LEAN OVER 2.5 (+135).
While the juice is on the Under for a reason, Milan has gone Over in 3 of its last 4 road matches and has scored in each of its last 5 road matches, allowing 2 or more goals in 2 of the last 4. It has only been held scoreless in 4 road matches this season, having played 16.
Even Roma’s numbers suggest the Over. It has gone Over in 3 straight home matches, scoring 3 goals per game over its last 3. Its offense has started to click as of late, and Milan doesn’t have the defense there to slow Roma down.
Both teams’ offenses have been performing well lately. With that in mind, back the OVER 2.5 (+135).
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