There were quite a few surprises on the opening night of the 2023 NFL draft, including the Texans making two of the first three picks and the Eagles somehow stealing Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith in the first round despite only trading up one spot total.
However, nothing was more shocking than Kentucky quarterback Will Levis falling all the way out of the first round after looking like he could be a top-5 or top-10 pick on Thursday night. With the second round starting tonight and the Rams holding the fifth pick, there’s a debate about whether they should end the quarterback’s slide and select him with the 36th overall pick.
There’s a case to be made that they should select Levis, but there’s also an argument against it. The problem for the Rams is Matthew Stafford’s contract, and that should preclude them from taking Levis – especially now that he’s fallen to the second round.
According to Over The Cap, Stafford has a cap hit of $49.5 million in 2024, $50.5 million in 2025 and $49.5 million in 2026. Those are massive numbers, similarly large to the dead cap charges the Rams would suffer if they were to cut Stafford.
Say the Rams do draft Levis tonight with the goal of him being their next franchise quarterback. It’s hard to imagine him getting any playing time until 2025 at the earliest. The Rams can’t move on from Stafford this year unless they want to eat $106.5 million in dead money – $86.5 million more than it would cost them to keep him. Absolutely not feasible.
If they cut Stafford next offseason, he’d cost them $86.5 million in dead money, a loss of $37 million in cap space. Even a trade would come with $55.5 million in dead money. Again, not feasible, even for a team that ate $24.7 million to trade Jared Goff and $21.5 million in the Allen Robinson deal.
The absolute earliest the Rams could move on from Stafford is in 2025 when he would carry a dead cap charge of “only” $37 million, thus saving the Rams $13.5 million. It would still be a high price to pay, but that’s the cost of signing Stafford to a $160 million deal.
If the Rams do draft Levis, he’s not going to play this year. He’s not going to make the Rams better in the immediate future – certainly not to the extent that someone like Joey Porter Jr., Brian Branch or Michael Mayer would.
Unless Stafford has told the Rams that he plans to retire after the 2023 season, there’s very little chance Levis will play in the next two seasons. And considering he’ll only be on a four-year deal, that’s maybe two years of value out of the young quarterback. Maybe.
If the Rams really wanted Levis and believe in him, they should have found a way to trade up into the first round in order to get the fifth-year option on his contract – a major benefit, especially at the quarterback position.
Levis is a good quarterback. He has the tools teams look for in a prospect, from a big arm to good size to impressive athleticism. But he’s also not great in the decision-making department and is a low-floor prospect, despite having a high ceiling.
If Levis were to fall to the Rams at No. 36, which seems very possible at this point, they should pass. They’re simply not in a spot to take a player who won’t see the field for at least two years. This team needs offensive line help, cornerbacks, pass rushers, a tight end, a wide receiver and just about everything else.
Take a quarterback on Day 3 and hope he can develop in the next two years, and if not, draft another one even earlier next year when you’re likely to be drafting higher. Now is not the time to take a chance on Levis.
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