Most analytical studies will state that an NFL team taking a running back in the first round is a colossal misallocation of resources. The return on investment relative to other positions makes it almost taboo in the modern NFL.
No RBs were picked in the first round in 2022. None have been selected higher than 24th overall since Saquon Barkley went No. 2 back in 2018.
Would the Detroit Lions break the mold in next week’s 2023 NFL draft? That was one of the questions posed to Lions GM Brad Holmes in his pre-draft press conference on Thursday.
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Holmes was asked if the Lions would consider electing a running back in the first round if he felt the talent merits it. While it wasn’t stated explicitly, the clear implication was about Texas RB Bijan Robinson, widely rated as the top running back prospect in several years.
The third-year GM answered by relating back to his years as the director of collegiate scouting for the Los Angeles Rams.
“I kind of just look at it as they’re all football players,” Holmes told reporters. “If they can help you, they can help you. I understand the narrative of that, but if you think that player is that good, if he’s out there producing for you, I don’t think anyone’s going to look back and say —I don’t think anyone said in 2016 or ’17 or ’18, ‘Man, they picked Todd Gurley at 10.’ No, he was just a really good running back. He was one of the top prospects in the draft. So, yeah. We didn’t really bat an eye.”
Gurley was the No. 10 overall pick in the 2015 NFL draft, the first RB to come off the board. He was the NFL’s offensive rookie of the year in 2015. Gurley followed that up by being named a first-team All-Pro in 2017 and 2018, leading the league in rushing TDs in both seasons. Knee injuries effectively ruined him thereafter, but for the first four seasons of his rookie contract, Gurley was arguably the best RB in football. Those 2017-2018 Rams made the postseason both years, advancing to the Super Bowl in the latter.
We’ll find out in a week if Holmes pulls the trigger on selecting Robinson with one of Detroit’s two first-round picks.
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