The NASCAR Cup Series is at Martinsville Speedway Sunday for the 2023 Noco 400. Green flag is scheduled to drop shortly after 3 p.m. ET (FOX Sports 1) from Martinsville, Va. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the 2023 Noco 400 odds, and make our expert NASCAR picks and predictions.
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Noco 400: What you need to know
- Stewart-Haas Racing’s Ryan Preece posted a best speed of 94.780 mph to earn his 1st-career NASCAR Cup Series poll.
- TrackHouse Racing’s Daniel Suarez was right on the heels of Preece, posting a qualifying speed of 94.298 mph, and he goes off on the outside of Row 1.
- Hendrick Motorsports driver William Byron won the race last spring at Martinsville, while Joe Gibbs Racing’s Christopher Bell won the fall race.
- Team Penske’s Ryan Blaney has never won at Martinsville, but he leads all active drivers with a 9.7 Average-Finish Position (AFP) in 14 career Cup starts. Unfortunately, he goes off from 31st Sunday.
- JGR’s Denny Hamlin leads all active drivers with 5 career Cup wins at Martinsville, while posting a 10.5 AFP with 2,190 laps led.
- SHR’s Aric Almirola and Chase Briscoe will start on Row 2 behind their teammate Preece.
- TrackHouse’s Ross Chastain had an awful time in qualifying, and he will go off 34th after a best speed of just 91.838 mph.
- Hendrick’s Chase Elliott (leg) returns after a 6-week absence due to a fractured leg and will makes his 1st start since the race at Auto Club Speedway on Feb. 26.
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Noco 400 – Expert pick
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:18 a.m. ET.
The Virginia native DENNY HAMLIN (+900) is a solid bet. He leads all active drivers with 5 Cup wins at the short track, and he has led 2,190 laps while posting a 10.5 AFP. Half of his Cup starts have resulted in finished of 5th or better, too, while 23 of his 34 Cup starts have been top-10 runs, which is roughly two-thirds (67.6%) of his all-time starts at the track.
Noco 400 – Long shot
I picked DANIEL SUAREZ (+1800) last week on the dirt at Bristol, and it didn’t come into fruition. The TrackHouse Racing driver is worth a roll of the dice again this week, however. He was solid in qualifying, and goes off 2nd in Sunday’s starting grid.
Suarez has long odds for good reason, despite his favorable starting spot. In 12 career Cup starts, he has finished 10th or better just twice, and he has never led a lap, while posting a dismal 22.5 AFP. Too bad you couldn’t hit this earlier in the week, as Suarez opened up at +5500.
Noco 400 prop picks
RYAN PREECE – TOP-5 FINISH (+180)
– Odds from Caesars sportsbook.
Preece starts on the pole, and Stewart-Haas Racing has 3 drivers in the 1st 2 rows this weekend, so this team has the right setup for “The Paperclip.”
Preece has always struggled at this track, posting just 3 top-20 finishes in 7 career Cup starts, while posting an awful 27.7 AFP with 2 DNFs. But this is his best machinery yet, and like Suarez above, Preece is worth a roll of the dice based on his ultra-favorable starting position and tremendous qualifying effort. Just proceed with caution.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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