The Jacksonville Jaguars have had a conservative offseason and general manager Trent Baalke has suggested it’ll be a conservative approach to the 2023 NFL Draft too.
At the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine, Baalke told reporters that he doesn’t expect the Jaguars “to be big movers and try to trade way up.” But on Tuesday, the team hosted Texas Tech pass rusher Tyree Wilson — widely considered a lock for the top 10 in a couple weeks — on a visit to TIAA Bank Field.
At the very least, the fact that the Jaguars have an eye on Wilson — as well as Georgia pass rusher Nolan Smith — suggests the team may not be ruling out a trade up, after all.
All but one starter (Jawaan Taylor) from the 2022 squad that reached the Divisional Round are set to return in 2023, and the Jaguars have Walker Little in place to take over at right tackle. Jacksonville can work to fill out depth on the roster through the draft, but it’d also make sense to take a swing at an elite prospect with a Super Bowl seemingly in reach.
Jaguars fans have seen that kind of move blow up in the franchise’s face before. In 2008, Jacksonville moved from No. 26 to No. 8 to take Derrick Harvey, a colossal bust who had eight career sacks. But that was another era with different ownership and leadership.
So what would it take for the Jaguars to climb high enough to go after a player like Wilson, Smith, or maybe Oregon cornerback Christian Gonzalez?
Per the trade value chart developed by former Dallas Cowboys and Miami Dolphins coach Jimmy Johnson, a jump from 24th overall to 10th overall costs 560 points, or roughly the value of an early second-round pick. Historically, there have been discounts given to teams that make massive leaps, though.
The 18-spot climb the Jaguars made in 2008 should’ve cost the team 700 points on the chart, but the compensation package sent to the Baltimore Ravens of the 71st, 89th, and 125th picks amounted to just 427 points.
Last year, when the Detroit Lions jumped 20 spots from No. 32 to No. 12, it should’ve cost them 610 points. They only sent a package to the Minnesota Vikings that set them back 230 points.
For now, this is the assigned value for the Jaguars’ picks, per the trade value chart
- 1st round (24th): 740
- 2nd round (56th): 340
- 3rd round (88th): 150
- 4th round (121st): 52
- 4th round (127th): 45
- 6th round (185th): 15.8
- 6th round (202nd): 9
- 6th round (208th): 6.6
- 7th round (226th): 1
Trading away a pick in a future draft isn’t Baalke’s style. He’s been on the receiving end of a future selection in seven draft day trades during his career as an executive, but he’s never once sent away a future pick to move up.
So — assuming Baalke isn’t willing to dig into his bag of 2024 selections and that the rule of discounts holds true — it’d likely take the 56th overall pick to make a significant move up. But those 340 points could be enough to vault the Jaguars from picking 24th to the top 10.
Is that worth it? For the right guy, it certainly could be.