Iowa’s Lukas Van Ness is one of the can’t-miss edge rush talents in the 2023 NFL draft.
The future for the former Hawkeye appears bright and it will be fun to see where he winds up at the next level. It feels like a foregone conclusion that Van Ness will be a highly productive pass rusher for a long, long time in the NFL.
But what does ESPN think is in store for the Barrington, Ill., native?
Nathan Forster of Football Outsiders used SackSEER, a statistical system for projecting the NFL success of college edge rushers, and projected what Van Ness’ five-year sacks total will be.
The system ran its data and projects Van Ness to rack up 24.5 sacks through his first five NFL seasons. That trails only Alabama‘s Will Anderson Jr. among 2023 NFL draft prospects.
The 6-foot-5, 272 pound edge rusher from Iowa earned a No. 11 overall ranking from Scouts Inc. and he earned historical comps to Ezekiel Ansah and Rashan Gary.
Here’s what Forster wrote about Van Ness.
Van Ness never truly broke out as a pass-rusher at Iowa, but SackSEER suggests that his best days could be in front of him. He had a good combine, running the 40-yard dash in only 4.58 seconds and the 3-cone in only 7.02 seconds. These are extremely good times for a player who weighs in at 272 pounds.
Van Ness’s weakness is his production. His passes defended rate was average, and his best season for sack numbers was his freshman year, when he recorded seven sacks in 13 games.
Production is not everything, and there is a fairly long list of edge rushers who never hit double-digit sacks in a season in college but later did so several times in the NFL. You never want to bet too hard on an edge rusher without tremendous college production, but Van Ness offers tantalizing upside as a player with a great combination of size and skill. – Forster, Football Outsiders.
Van Ness leaves Iowa City with 71 career tackles, 19.5 tackles for loss, 13.5 sacks and one pass defensed. Here’s a look at his best photos in the black and gold.