The 2022 season was a resounding success for LSU.
The Tigers beat Alabama, won 10 games and captured a West division title. Check, check, check.
But there’s a clear hurdle that team wasn’t able to surmount, and it resides in Athens, Georgia.
Kirby Smart’s UGA program is in the middle of one of the more impressive runs in recent memory. The Bulldogs have won back-to-back national championships and don’t seem to be slowing down any time soon.
This team recruits at an elite level and is able to reload even when swathes of players depart for the NFL draft each season. Right now, everyone else in the league — including the mighty Crimson Tide — is playing catchup.
But [autotag]Brian Kelly[/autotag] has done tremendous work in a short period of time since arriving at LSU. He returns a lot of key pieces in 2023, and he added veterans in the transfer portal at spots where he doesn’t.
This team is expected to take a leap, and the Tigers were listed by ESPN’s Heather Dinich as one of four teams that are best equipped to beat the Bulldogs next fall, alongside ‘Bama, Ohio State and Tennessee.
Brian Kelly’s record vs. Kirby Smart: 0-3 (twice at Notre Dame, once at LSU)
Last meeting: Georgia won 50-30 in the SEC championship game on Dec. 3, 2022.
How they do it this year: This scenario assumes LSU and Georgia win their respective divisions and meet for a second straight season in the SEC title game — which also means LSU has to win at Alabama on Nov. 4, or hope the Tide lose twice again. If LSU gets a second shot at Georgia, it needs to continue to carve up the Bulldogs’ defense with the big plays. Last year, LSU had 11 plays of at least 20 yards. According to ESPN’s Stats & Info, Jayden Daniels had 95 QBR against Georgia’s zone defense in the SEC title game. All five starters return to LSU’s offensive line this season, and would be key in stealing the SEC title from Georgia.
“Their offensive and defensive lines, you have to match their physicality first,” Kelly said. “You have to build your program based upon the ability to win those physical matchups. And then, from our perspective, is the ability to put points on the board. You’re not going to win 10-7, 14-10, you have to have explosive playmakers. There’s just not many teams like that yet. We think we can get there, but there’s not many teams at that level.”
How it impacts the CFP: LSU would be in as SEC champ, no question. Schedule strength is not an issue with Florida State to open the season and an SEC West slate. The bigger question is if Georgia would still finish in the top four as runner-up, and that’s not a given because of the Bulldogs’ weak nonconference schedule referenced above. So much more goes into this answer, including: how dominant Georgia was in its wins; how many ranked opponents it defeated during the regular season; how the Nov. 18 game at Tennessee unfolded; how the other Power 5 conference champions compare and how highly the selection committee regarded the Bulldogs to that point.
As Dinich points out, the two aren’t set to face next fall, meaning the only potential matchup would come in the SEC Championship. A rematch of last year’s game could go differently this time around, especially with the Bulldogs facing a number of questions of their own.
Regardless, if LSU fancies itself a College Football Playoff contender — and given this roster, it should — it would likely need to win the SEC, at least until the CFP field expands to 12 in 2024.
In all likelihood, that would mean knocking the Bulldogs off their pedestal.
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