Then there were 4.
If you’re still alive in the USA TODAY’s NCAA Men’s Tournament Survivor Pool contest heading into this weekend’s Final Four, way to go! After the Elite 8 action, only 61 entries out of 8,109 remain alive.
We’re down to 4 teams — the 9th-seeded FAU Owls, two 5 seeds in the Miami Hurricanes and San Diego State Aztecs and the 4th-seeded UConn Huskies.
If you’re one of the remaining 61 entries, congrats on staying alive until Houston. With a decent number of points still available, it could be a wild finish for the $5,000 prize.
As an employee, I was ineligible to win this NCAA Tournament Survivor Pool contest. I would have been eliminated in the 1st round, anyway, when No. 2 seed Arizona was upset by 15th-seeded Princeton. My 2nd-round picks wouldn’t have been any better with Furman losing to San Diego State, and Auburn falling to Houston.
At least I bounced back with Creighton defeating Princeton in the 3rd round, and with Miami topping Texas in the 4th round.
Meanwhile, the national championship remains wide open.
FAU, Miami and San Diego State are playing in their 1st-ever Final Four, while UConn has 4 national titles and will be making its 6th Final Four appearance.
So, this is certainly unchartered territory for 75% of the remaining field.
Here’s my strategy of how to advance into the title game of this Men’s Basketball Tournament Survivor Pool.
Since the Sweet 16, remaining entries were/are required to pick just 1 team to win in each of the final 4 rounds — no spread involved. Once you pick a team, it can’t be used again, similar to an NFL survivor pool.
We were required to picked 3 winning teams in the 1st round and 2 winners in the 2nd round
Now, you’ll pick 1 team in the Final Four and then the National Championship Game winner — if you still have eligible teams left to choose from.
[gambcom-standard rankid=”3259″ ]
[gambcom-standard rankid=”3272″ ]
The other significant rule is that points are earned equal to your winning teams’ seeds.
There are still a few available points in the Final Four:
- 9 points – FAU Owls
- 5 points each – Miami Hurricanes, San Diego State Aztecs
- 4 points – UConn Huskies
Then again, you might have already burned one or more of these 4 semifinalists and your options are limited.
Stream select live college basketball games and full replays: Get ESPN+
Final Four pick
FAU OWLS (35-3)
Who they play: San Diego State Aztecs (31-6)
When: Saturday, 6:09 p.m. ET (CBS)
Where: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
If you haven’t picked the Owls yet, then it’s high time to use them up now. If FAU is able to advance, those 9 points would be huge at this stage of the contest.
FAU (+2.5) isn’t nearly as big of an underdog as Miami (+5.5), which is in the 2nd semifinal vs. UConn, per BetMGM Sportsbook. Plus, I already used Miami in the last round in its upset win vs. Texas.
The Owls started their basketball program in 1988. Heck, Florida Atlantic University was only founded in 1961, too.
FAU had been to the NCAA Tournament only once before, back in 2002 when it lost as a 15-seed in the 1st round to 2nd-seeded Alabama. So, FAU’s 1st NCAA Tournament win was just over 2 weeks ago (March 17) with a 66-65 squeaker over 8th-seeded Memphis. The Owls went on to win 3 more times to earn this trip to the Final Four.
FAU topped Memphis, with a controversial call at the end, and then it was fortunate enough to draw a 16th-seeded Fairleigh Dickinson for a chance at the Sweet 16. It topped FDU by 8 (78-70), but it still looked like there would be a huge, uphill battle, to even think about Houston.
In the Sweet 16, the Owls played their best basketball of the tournament at Madison Square Garden, beating 4th-seeded Tennessee 62-55. The Owls recovered from a low-scoring, 22-point first half by posting 40 2nd-half points in the 7-point victory. They shot a respectable 42% (21-for-50) from the field against a strong Vols defense, and hit 29.6% (8-for-27) from behind the 3-point line.
If FAU is to knock off San Diego State, it will need to perform like it did against Tennessee.
The Aztecs have a similar lockdown defense, which is just about as good as anybody in the country. It’s San Diego State’s offense that concerns. In the regular season, only G Matt Bradley (13.0 PPG) averaged double-digit points.
If FAU runs, and is able to dictate the tempo, will San Diego State be able to hang offensively? I don’t believe so.
The one thing that is very much in San Diego State’s favor, making FAU a risky pick, is that the Aztecs ranked 15th in defensive 3-pointer percentage (29.8%) during the regular season, according to Covers.com.
The Owls go 9-deep in their rotation, and coach Dusty May likes to get guys like G Jalen Gaffney (32.3%) and G Brandon Weatherspoon (33.3%) off the bench for their 3-point ability. G Johnell Davis hits 36.6% from behind the arc, and 1st-round hero G Nick Boyd sinks 39.3% of his 3-point attempts.
The Owls have the depth to solve the Aztecs defense and continue an unlikely run to the title game.
Good luck and make sure to check back before Monday’s National Championship Game for the final pick.
Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!
[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]
For sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
College sports coverage from USA TODAY Sports Media Group:
Alabama / Arkansas / Auburn / Clemson / Colorado / Florida / Georgia / Iowa / LSU / Michigan / Michigan State / Nebraska / North Carolina / Notre Dame / Ohio State / Oklahoma / Oregon / Penn State / Rutgers / Tennessee / Texas / Texas A&M / USC / Wisconsin / College Football News
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1667]