UFC 286 predictions: Who’s picking Leon Edwards to upset Kamaru Usman again?

Check out our staff members’ picks for the UFC 286 main card in London, featuring a Leon Edwards-Kamaru Usman welterweight title rematch.

Edwards
vs.
Usman
Fiziev
vs.
Gaethje
Barberena
vs.
Nelson
Maia
vs.
O’Neill
Dolidze
vs.
Vettori
MMA Junkie readers’
consensus picks
30-19
usman2023
Usman
(59%)
fiziev2023
Fiziev
(52%)
nelson2023
Nelson
(62%)
oneill2023
O’Neill
(73%)
vettori2023
Vettori
(59%)
George Garcia
@MMAjunkieGeorge
33-16
usman2023
Usman
gaethje2023
Gaethje
barberena2023
Barberena
oneill2023
O’Neill
dolidze2023
Dolidze
Nolan King
@mma_kings
30-19/em>
usman2023
Usman
fiziev2023
Fiziev
nelson2023
Nelson
maia2023
Maia
vettori2023
Vettori
Matt Erickson
@MattE
30-19
usman2023
Usman
gaethje2023
Gaethje
nelson2023
Nelson
oneill2023
O’Neill
dolidze2023
Dolidze
Matthew Wells
@MrMWells
30-19
usman2023
Usman
fiziev2023
Fiziev
nelson2023
Nelson
oneill2023
O’Neill
dolidze2023
Dolidze
Simon Samano
@SJSamano
29-20
leonedwards2023
Edwards
gaethje2023
Gaethje
nelson2023
Nelson
oneill2023
O’Neill
dolidze2023
Dolidze
Ken Hathaway
@kenshathaway
29-20
trophy copy 2018, 2022 Champion
usman2023
Usman
fiziev2023
Fiziev
barberena2023
Barberena
oneill2023
O’Neill
dolidze2023
Dolidze
Danny Segura
@dannyseguratv
28-21
usman2023
Usman
fiziev2023
Fiziev
barberena2023
Barberena
oneill2023
O’Neill
vettori2023
Vettori
Mike Bohn
@MikeBohn
27-22
trophy copy 2014 Champion
usman2023
Usman
fiziev2023
Fiziev
nelson2023
Nelson
oneill2023
O’Neill
vettori2023
Vettori
Farah Hannoun
@Farah_Hannoun
27-22
usman2023
Usman
gaethje2023
Gaethje
nelson2023
Nelson
oneill2023
O’Neill
vettori2023
Vettori
Brian Garcia
@thegoze
26-23
trophy copy 2017 Champion
usman2023
Usman
gaethje2023
Gaethje
barberena2023
Barberena
oneill2023
O’Neill
vettori2023
Vettori
Abbey Subhan
@kammakaze
26-23
leonedwards2023
Edwards
gaethje2023
Gaethje
nelson2023
Nelson
oneill2023
O’Neill
vettori2023
Vettori

The UFC is back in London for the third time in about a year this week with a welterweight trilogy rematch atop the card.

UFC 286 takes place Saturday at The O2 in London. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPNews and early prelims on ESPN+.

(Click here to open a PDF of the staff picks grid in a separate window.)

In the main event, welterweight champion [autotag]Leon Edwards[/autotag] (20-3 MMA, 12-2 UFC) takes on former champ [autotag]Kamaru Usman[/autotag] (20-2 MMA, 15-1 UFC) in a trilogy title rematch. Usman had little issue with Edwards for nearly 25 minutes when they fought this past August, but Edwards pulled off a stunning late head-kick knockout to take the title.

Usman is a -250 favorite at Tipico Sportsbook; the comeback on Edwards is +200. It’s not a shutout, though it is a blowout. Our 11 editors, writers, radio hosts and videographers have Usman ahead at 9-2.

[lawrence-related id=2625477,2625475]

In the co-feature, [autotag]Rafael Fiziev[/autotag] (12-1 MMA, 6-1 UFC) takes on former interim lightweight champ [autotag]Justin Gaethje[/autotag] (23-4 MMA, 6-4 UFC). Fiziev is more than a 2-1 favorite, but it’s Gaethje who has the slimmest possible picks lead at 6-5.

Also on the main card, [autotag]Bryan Barberena[/autotag] (18-9 MMA, 9-7 UFC) meets [autotag]Gunnar Nelson[/autotag] (18-5-1 MMA, 9-5 UFC) in a welterweight bout. Nelson is the biggest favorite on the main card at -360, but he has just a 7-4 lead in the picks from our staff members.

[autotag]Jennifer Maia[/autotag] (20-9-1 MMA, 5-5 UFC) takes on the unbeaten [autotag]Casey O’Neill[/autotag] (9-0 MMA, 4-0 UFC) in a women’s flyweight bout. O’Neill is a -170 favorite – the smallest favorite on the main card. Yet she is our closest thing to a unanimous pick at 10-1.

And to open the main card, former middleweight title challenger [autotag]Marvin Vettori[/autotag] (18-5-1 MMA, 8-4-1 UFC) fights [autotag]Roman Dolidze[/autotag] (12-1 MMA, 6-1 UFC). Vettori nearly is a 3-1 favorite at the betting window, but he only has a 6-5 lead in the picks.

In the MMA Junkie consensus picks, Usman (59 percent), Fiziev (52 percent), Nelson (62 percent), O’Neill (73 percent) and Vettori (59 percent) are the choices.

Check out all the picks above.

For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 286.