The Cincinnati Bearcats (21-11) square off with the No. 1 Houston Cougars (30-2) Saturday in the AAC Tournament semifinals. Tip from Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas, is at 3 p.m. ET (ESPN2). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Cincinnati vs. Houston odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.
Rankings courtesy of the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll.
Cincinnati crushed Temple 84-54 as a 5-point favorite in the quarterfinals Friday. Temple may be one of the two teams to topple Houston this season, but it is not nearly the same caliber as the Cougars and the Bearcats will find Saturday’s semifinal a much greater challenge.
Houston has been dominant all season and continued that dominance Friday with a 60-46 win over East Carolina. It has relied on a smothering defense to routinely hold opponents to fewer than 60 points.
Houston is one of the top contenders for the National Championship this season. A loss here will not diminish this, but a win and a win in the AAC championship game Sunday would solidify the Cougars as the team to beat heading into March Madness where it will be a top seed.
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Cincinnati vs. Houston odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:45 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Cincinnati +365 (bet $100 to win $365) | Houston -525 (bet $525 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Cincinnati +9.5 (-105) | Houston -9.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 135.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Cincinnati vs. Houston picks and predictions
Prediction
Houston 65, Cincinnati 57
Moneyline
PASS.
Favorites are often valued to such a high extent in NCAA games that the moneyline makes no sense to wager unless your strongly believe in the upset coming through, and that’s exactly what’s happening with Houston (-525) in this semifinal.
There is no value in risking more than 5 times your potential return on the Cougars, and the underdog is far from a certain thing in this one.
Against the spread
BET CINCINNATI +9.5 (-105).
This number has already dropped a full point since early Saturday morning, but I still believe the underdog can cover the spread.
Cincinnati has the ability to keep this game close even if it is never a threat to actually win the game. The Bearcats showed their power by trampling Temple by a 30-point margin Friday.
The Bearcats score 77.9 points per game (42nd) but will do enough against the 2nd-ranked Houston defense (56.5 points allowed per game) to keep this one close. Houston will be unable to pull away enough to cover this number and a 6-to-8-point victory is more in line.
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Over/Under
BET UNDER 135.5 (-110).
The Under is the only way to go here.
Houston is an elite defensive team and allowed just 46 points to East Carolina Friday.
While Cincinnati averages 77.9 points per game, do not expect it to get there Saturday. Houston will also not need to score to its average of 76.0 to win.
Neither team should get to 70 and the Under 135.5 is the most tempting play to make in this game.
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