Penn State reshaped its tournament profile in the final week of the regular season with momentum-shifting wins at Northwestern and at home against Maryland, but the Nittany Lions are still not quite a given to make the tournament NCAA tournament just yet. Penn State will head to the Big Ten tournament in Chicago knowing there is still some work to so to lock down an at-large bid in the tournament, but EPSN bracketologist Joe Lunardi feels the Nittany Lions have a slight margin for error.
Lunardi’s updated bracket for the 2023 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament was updated Tuesday, and the Nittany Lions are one of his last four teams in not having to play in the opening round. But they are the last team to get in before being slotted into one of the tournament’s opening round games.
Penn State gets Lunardi’s 11-seed in the South region, which would deliver a first-round matchup with San Diego State, the six-seed and the champions of the Mountain West Conference getting an automatic qualifier. That would send Penn State to Denver for the first round. If Penn State was to pull the upset of the Aztecs, Penn State would face the winner of the Kansas State-UC Irvine matchup with a potential shot at Duke or Purdue coming after that in the Sweet 16.
The other three teams in Lunardi’s last four in without having to play an opening-round game include (in order) Boise State, NC State, and Pittsburgh. The last four teams in Lunardi’s bracket are Mississippi State, Utah State, Rutgers, and Nevada. Rutgers is interesting because the Scarlet Knights were 2-0 against Penn State and finished one game ahead of Penn State in the Big Ten standings. Rutgers will also play one of Lunardi’s teams sitting just outside the bracket, Michigan, in their first Big Ten tournament game. Michigan is among Lunardi’s next four teams out, while Wisconsin is one of his first four teams out. Wisconsin faces Ohio State in the first game of the Big Ten tournament on Wednesday. Penn State went 1-5 against Rutgers, Michigan, and Wisconsin during the regular season.
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One win in the Big Ten tournament could potentially be enough to get Penn State into the NCAA Tournament. The Nittany Lions face Illinois on Thursday evening in their first game of the tournament. Penn State was 2-0 against Illinois during the regular season. A third win would send Penn State on to face Northwestern in the quarterfinals. Penn State won an overtime thriller in Evanston last week.
Of course, if Penn State were to just win four more games, it wouldn’t have to worry about any of the at-large conversations.
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