The 4th elevated event on the PGA Tour schedule takes place this week with the star-studded 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Bay Hill Club and Lodge will once again host this great event, which will begin on Thursday morning. Below, we look at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.
Scottie Scheffler is back to defend his title at Bay Hill and opens at +1000 as he seeks his 2nd win in his last 3 starts after winning the WM Phoenix Open 2 weeks ago. Jon Rahm is the betting favorite (+650) as he goes for back-to-back wins, while Rory McIlroy is also a headliner in this field.
Bay Hill is among the tougher non-major courses on the schedule. Scheffler won last year at 5-under par 283, a shot clear of Viktor Hovland, Billy Horschel and Tyrell Hatton. It’s a par 72 that plays to 7,466 yards, with water in play on most holes.
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Arnold Palmer Invitational – Expert picks
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 1:04 p.m. ET.
Rory McIlroy (+900)
McIlroy won here in 2018, but what might be even more impressive and telling is that he’s only finished worse than T-13 once in 8 trips to Bay Hill. He’s never missed the cut, coming in 27th or better each time.
Bay Hill is a course that demands players to be accurate with their irons and fairly long off the tee, which are 2 boxes McIlroy checks. He should be closer to the co-favorite with Rahm, but with McIlroy struggling a bit in his last 2 starts and Rahm winning his last time out at Riviera, McIlroy’s odds have been knocked down a little bit.
Will Zalatoris (+2000)
Zalatoris has shown he’s fully recovered from his back injury, hitting it long at Riviera and averaging 310.9 yards off the tee. He also leads the tour with a 53.57% rate of his drives going 300-320 yards. Add in his ball striking into the greens and he’s a perfect fit for Bay Hill.
A player who excels when the scoring conditions are tough, Zalatoris should be in contention on Sunday; he tied for 10th here in 2021.
Collin Morikawa (+2000)
Morikawa surprisingly missed the cut in Phoenix, but he followed that up with a T-6 at the Genesis Invitational, another loaded field. He’s found something with his irons, ranking 8th on tour in strokes gained: approach the green this season.
He’s only played this event twice and not since 2020, but he finished 9th in his last start at Bay Hill.
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Arnold Palmer Invitational picks – Contenders
Tommy Fleetwood (+6000)
Fleetwood has an impressive track record here, making the cut in 5 of 6 starts. He tied for 10th and 20th in his last 2 starts, with a tie for 3rd in 2019 being his best finish – and 1 of 3 top-10s for him at Bay Hill. He has 1 top-10 and 2 top-25 finishes in just 4 starts this season, so he’s playing well coming into the Florida swing.
Keegan Bradley (+7000)
Bradley finished alone in 2nd at Torrey Pines this season and tied for 20th a week later in Phoenix, so he’s trending up – despite missing the cut at Riviera. In the last 2 years, he tied for 11th and 10th at Bay Hill, making the cut in 10 of 11 trips here with 3 top-10s.
Hideki Matsuyama (+6000)
Matsuyama’s odds have gotten a little bit longer than they probably should be this season. He missed the cut at the Genesis Invitational, but prior to that, he had 3 top-30s in a span of 4 starts, including a T-9 at Torrey Pines. He tied for 18th and 20th in his last 2 appearances at Bay Hill.
Arnold Palmer Invitational picks – Long shots
Aaron Wise (+10000)
This really isn’t a tournament for long shots, especially now that it’s an elevated event. But Wise is a sleeper worth considering. He tied for 17th here last year and has made the cut in 3 of 4 starts here. It’s hard to see him winning against this field, but another top 20 could be in the cards.
Beau Hossler (+20000)
Hossler tied for 11th at Pebble Beach and 14th in the WM Phoenix Open before missing the cut at the Genesis Invitational, but he’s still gotten off to a great start this season with 5 top-25s in his 1st 11 events played. He also tied for 20th and 24th in his last 2 trips to Bay Hill, so the course history is there.
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