It is almost March. USC’s next game will be played in March. We have essentially (if not technically) arrived at college basketball’s month of truth.
Selection Sunday, March 12, is now less than two weeks away. What was a marathon in November is now a sprint to the finish line. Teams have no more than two games before conference tournaments begin, no more than five or six possible games before Selection Sunday to make their final arguments for a spot in the 2023 NCAA Tournament.
It’s crunch time.
What are the biggest stories to follow on the bubble? The biggest overall story is that the Big 12 and Big Ten Conferences have noticeably larger bubbles than other conferences. Both conferences have three legitimate bubble teams heading into March.
The Big 12 has West Virginia, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech.
The Big Ten has Wisconsin, Michigan, and Penn State.
These bubble teams are not on equal footing. West Virginia and Oklahoma State are in better position than Texas Tech. Wisconsin and Michigan are in better position than Penn State.
Nevertheless, Texas Tech and Penn State are still alive as bubble teams if they can win at least two more games in the next week and a half. They will both get a long look on Selection Sunday if they can win three more games. The margins are slim, but if they can make a run, they’ll be in the mix.
What USC fans and the fans of other bubble teams need to understand about the Big Ten and Big 12 bubbles is that from this group of six teams, it’s really important for no more than three to go to the NCAA Tournament. If the Big 12 gets two of its three bubble teams in, and the Big Ten gets one of its three in the field, that’s an outcome other bubble teams would live with.
The Big 12 has been a very strong conference, making it likely that it will get eight teams in the field and that two of WVU, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech will get in. Oklahoma State plays Texas Tech later this week, so the winner will benefit from that game.
The Big Ten has been marked by balance and parity, but not strength. It remains to be seen how much value exists in the ninth-place Big Ten team beating the eighth-place Big Ten team. If only one of the three Big Ten bubble teams gets in, that would be a considerable source of relief for bubble teams in other conferences.
If four of these six bubble teams reach the NCAA Tournament, that’s a problem. That would either mean the Big 12 gets nine teams in (less probable), or the Big Ten gets nine teams in, most likely Wisconsin and Michigan together instead of only one of the two. That would shrink the bubble for other conferences.
Conversely, the unlikely scenario in which only two of these six bubble teams reach the NCAA Tournament would be amazing news for USC and other bubble teams. This would mean that only one of the three Big 12 bubble teams gets in, and only one of the three Big Ten bubble teams gets in.
All that’s left is for us to find out what will happen. This is (almost) March.
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