The hype train is certainly rolling in Baton Rouge after a fantastic Year 1 for [autotag]Brian Kelly[/autotag].
With a 10-win season and an upset over Alabama that ultimately clinched an SEC West title, it’s hard to ask for more than what Kelly delivered. Still, as he enters Year 2 on the bayou, those expectations will be understandably raised.
With what the Tigers return, fans will expect this team to compete for a national title. That said, there’s still quite a bit of uncertainty when it comes to this team, which will feature a lot of new faces from the transfer portal once again.
ESPN’s Bill Connelly broke down the ceiling, floor and biggest variable for every team in the preseason top 25, and for the No. 8 Tigers, he gave a ceiling of 11-1 and floor of 7-5 — certainly a large range. For Connelly, the biggest variable will be LSU’s ability to produce big plays, which wasn’t exactly a strength in 2022.
Ceiling: 11-1 | Floor: 7-5
Initial SP+ rank: 7 | Odds of finishing 11-1 or better: 10%Biggest variable: Big plays. In coach Brian Kelly’s first season in Baton Rouge, the Tigers won 10 games and stole the SEC West title with an upset of Alabama. With ever-scrambling quarterback Jayden Daniels and most of the offense returning, and with Matt House’s defense bringing in 10 transfers to pair with safety Greg Brooks Jr. and other veterans, it’s easy to think big. But winning the “easy points” battle is key to making a title push. LSU ranked 101st in marginal explosiveness* on offense and 50th on defense. Efficiency? No problem. Big plays? A bit of a problem.
* Marginal explosiveness: My go-to explosiveness measure, which looks at the magnitude of a team’s successful plays and adjusts for down, distance and field position.
LSU was very consistent offensively, but the lack of big plays did cause some problems and could prove to be a limiting factor if the Tigers hope to contend for a playoff spot next fall.
Still, as Connelly mentions, you can see why many are thinking big with this team given what returns. The only question will be if LSU can improve on the areas that limited it in 2022.
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