The UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (11-3, 0-2 Mountain West) battle the No. 22 New Mexico Lobos (14-1, 2-1). Tip from The Pit is set for 9:30 p.m. ET (CBSSN). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the UNLV vs. New Mexico odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
UNLV lost to San Diego State 76-67 on Dec. 31. It did not cover, closing as a 4-point home underdog. UNLV is 7-6 against the spread (ATS) on the season and is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games that featured a spread. Its strength is in its defensive efficiency, sitting 56th in the nation in opponents’ field goal percentage (40.2%).
New Mexico is a perfect 10-0 at home this season and is 8-5-1 ATS. It is coming off its first loss of the season, a 71-67 defeat at the hand of Fresno State. The Lobos closed as a 3.5-point road favorite. Their strength is offense, averaging 83 points per game, good for 17th-best in the nation.
Rankings courtesy of the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll.
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UNLV at New Mexico odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:45 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): UNLV +175 (bet $100 to win $175) | New Mexico -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): UNLV +5.5 (-115) | New Mexico -5.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 149.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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UNLV at New Mexico picks and predictions
Prediction
New Mexico 80, UNLV 72
Moneyline
PASS.
New Mexico is 10-0 on the road and is rightfully a heavy favorite here.
Against the spread
BET NEW MEXICO -5.5 (-105).
New Mexico is coming off its first loss, but it still has an explosive offense, sitting 25th in the nation in field goal percentage (48.8%).
The Lobos have covered their last 3 home games, so couple their offensive efficiency with their success at home, and there’s a strong case to be made. New Mexico has had just 4 of 15 games end within 6 points as well, so it has been able to consistently win by more than this amount.
On the other hand, UNLV has failed to cover 2 straight and struggles with its offensive efficiency, ranking 199th in field goal percentage (44.3%). It is 1-1 ATS as an underdog this season. The Rebels are also 1-1 on the road this season.
Put it all together, and the Lobos’ success at home coupled with the Rebels’ recent struggles suggest playing NEW MEXICO -5.5 (-105).
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 149.5 (-110).
If there’s something both teams have consistently done, it is cover the projected Over.
UNLV is 9-4 O/U while New Mexico is 9-5 O/U. The Rebels have gone Over in 7 of their last 8 games that featured a total. New Mexico has gone Over in 5 straight and has scored at least 75 in 4 of those 5.
Given its offensive efficiency and inability to defend the 3 (New Mexico ranks 160th in opponents’ 3-point field goal percentage), back the OVER 150.5 (-110).
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