The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-7, 0-4 ACC) battle the North Carolina Tar Heels (10-5, 2-2) Saturday. Tip from the Dean Smith Center is set for 11:30 a.m. ET (ESPN2). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Notre Dame vs. North Carolina odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
North Carolina took down Wake Forest 88-79 Wednesday but failed to cover as a 10-point home favorite. The Tar Heels are just 4-10-1 against the spread (ATS) this season. They are a perfect 7-0 straight up at home though. North Carolina has failed to cover 3 straight but is 3-3 ATS over its last 6. UNC ranks 24th in the nation in points per game (81.4).
Notre Dame was upset as a 2.5-point road favorite at Boston College 70-63 Tuesday. The Fighting Irish are only 3-12 ATS, including 2-8 ATS over their last 10. Notre Dame’s strength is shooting from deep, ranking 43rd in 3-point field-goal percentage (37.7%), according to Covers.com.
Check out: USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll
Stream select live college basketball games and full replays: Get ESPN+
Notre Dame at North Carolina odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 11:47 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Notre Dame +525 (bet $100 to win $525) | North Carolina -850 (bet $100 to win $850)
- Against the spread: Notre Dame +12.5 (-110) | North Carolina -12.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 144.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Catch the excitement and bet with Tipico
Double Down, Ohio! Deposit $200, Get $250. Bet now!
In Colorado and New Jersey, claim your 100% Deposit Match up to $250 now. Bet now! 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions.
Notre Dame at North Carolina picks and predictions
Prediction
North Carolina 78, Notre Dame 71
Moneyline
PASS.
North Carolina’s -850 price is way too risky even with UNC being 8-0 at home and Notre Dame 0-2 on the road (not counting neutral-site games). A North Carolina (-850) moneyline is unplayable, even in a parlay.
Against the spread
LEAN NOTRE DAME +12.5 (-110).
North Carolina is just 3-4 ATS at home this season and has failed to cover 3 in a row, 1 of which was at home (the 9-point win over Wake Forest). The Tar Heels are just 3-6-1 ATS over their last 10, so they haven’t been defeating opponents by as much as books would think lately.
As for the Fighting Irish, they have been awful ATS as well, posting just a 3-12 record. However, they do hold opponents to 31.8% from deep, and the Tar Heels have snipers.
With a spread of this size in a conference game, BACK NOTRE DAME +12.5 (-110) to limit their opponents’ 3-point shooting and keep the game reasonably close.
Over/Under
BET OVER 144.5 (-110).
While Notre Dame should be able to slow down North Carolina’s shooters, it ranks 316th in opponents’ field-goal percentage at 46.1% (according to NCAA.org). So, the high-octane Tar Heels attack mixed with the Fighting Irish’s overall defensive inefficiencies should be the perfect combination for points to be scored and the Over to cash.
The Fighting Irish score 69.7 points per game as well, so they hold their own offensively. They’ve gone Over in 3 of their last 5. North Carolina has gone Over in 5 straight and is 9-6 O/U this season.
Ultimately, OVER 144.5 (-110) is my FAVORITE BET in this contest.
Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!
Want action on this basketball game or any other sports contest? Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, SportsbookWire’s official sportsbook partner in OH, CO and NJ. Bet now!
If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow @nathanbeighle_ on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
College sports coverage from USA TODAY Sports Media Group:
Alabama / Arkansas / Auburn / Clemson / Colorado / Florida / Georgia / Iowa / LSU / Michigan / Michigan State / Nebraska / North Carolina / Notre Dame / Ohio State / Oklahoma / Oregon / Penn State / Rutgers / Tennessee / Texas / Texas A&M / USC / Wisconsin / College Football News
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1667]