The No. 14 Oregon Ducks (9-3) and the No. 25 North Carolina Tar Heels (9-4) meet in the Holiday Bowl Wednesday at Petco Park in San Diego. Kickoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET (FOX). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the North Carolina vs. Oregon odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
Rankings courtesy of AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
North Carolina lost its last game of the season 39-10 to Clemson, failing to cover as 7-point home underdogs. The Tar Heels were 6-7 against the spread (ATS) this season. They were captained by QB Drake Maye, the ACC Offensive Player of the Year. There have been a plethora of rumors regarding if he will enter the transfer portal, but Maye seems set to return to UNC and appears set to play Wednesday.
Maye will face Oregon star Bo Nix in what has been called the best QB matchup in the Holiday Bowl’s 43-year history. Behind Nix, the Ducks were 8-4 ATS. They lost 2 of their last 3 after winning 8 straight games after a blowout loss to Georgia to start the season. The Ducks were 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games.
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North Carolina at Oregon odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 9:33 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): North Carolina +390 (bet $100 to win $390) | Oregon -525 (bet $525 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): North Carolina +13 (-111) | Oregon -13 (-109)
- Over/Under (O/U): 75.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
North Carolina at Oregon picks and predictions
Prediction
Oregon 41, North Carolina 31
Moneyline
PASS.
Oregon is the better side and had far fewer struggles than North Carolina. Nonetheless, at (-525), the Ducks are unplayable to win outright. The Tar Heels could be worth a look at (+390), but I would look to the spread for value.
Against the spread
BET NORTH CAROLINA +13 (-111).
Maye and company have the firepower to keep this game close. Their 39-10 loss to Clemson left a bad taste in the mouth of bettors, but it was their lone loss by 14 or more this season, having also played Notre Dame and Wake Forest.
UNC was perfect away from home this season (6-0) as well. Oregon, on the other hand, lost 2 of its last 3, one of which was to the unranked Oregon State 38-34. The Ducks were 4-1 on the road this season.
Considering the strength of Maye and the size of this spread, back NORTH CAROLINA +13 (-111).
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 75.5 (-112).
Both teams have high-octane offenses, but this total is too high to bet the Over. The Tar Heels are 6-7 O/U this season, and while the Ducks are 7-5 O/U, they have gone Under in 3 of their last 4 games.
Oregon is 1-2 O/U with a total in the 70s. Similarly, the only time the Tar Heels had a total in this range (80 against Wake Forest), the score ended 36-34.
Considering how the teams have performed with totals at this amount, back the UNDER 75.5 (-112).
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