The New Mexico State Aggies (6-6) and Bowling Green Falcons (6-6) meet in the Quick Lane Bowl Monday at Ford Field in Detroit. Kickoff is scheduled for 2:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the New Mexico State vs. Bowling Green odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
The Aggies secured bowl eligibility in grand fashion, thumping fellow bowl team Liberty, 49-14, in their place Nov. 26, while posting an FBS win over Valparaiso Dec. 3, its only win over an FCS team, securing a postseason bid.
The good news is that the Aggies are bowling for the first time since 2017, a 26-20 overtime win in the Arizona Bowl over Utah State. It’s just its second bowl since 1960, and they’ll play someone other than USU in the bowl for the first time since 1959.
There were unconfirmed reports of QB Diego Pavia, the school’s leading passer, of hitting the transfer portal. However, he has been practicing, and trying to recover from a hamstring injury. Head coach Jerry Kill estimated Pavia is about 90 percent, and that he should be good to go barring any setbacks.
Bowling Green was smashed 38-14 at Ohio in the regular-season finale, losing the battle for the East Division title in the process. Instead of going to Detroit for the MAC title game, they’re not there for this game.
Bowling Green had a nice 5-game stretch where it went 4-1 SU, including a 3-game win streak over Miami, Central Michigan and Western Michigan from Oct.15-Nov. 2.
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New Mexico State vs. Bowling Green odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 9:30 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): New Mexico State +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Bowling Green -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): New Mexico State +3 (-106) | Bowling Green -3 (-114)
- Over/Under (O/U): 48.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
New Mexico State vs. Bowling Green picks and predictions
Prediction
Bowling Green 26, New Mexico State 24
Moneyline
BOWLING GREEN (-160) is right at my personal limit for a standalone money line bet, although it is certainly not priced out of line if you want to include it in a multi-team parlay.
The bet comes with risk, and New Mexico State (+150) could easily get it done if Pavia’s hamstring is sound. The Aggies could find plenty of open spaces against a Falcons pass defense which allowed 257.7 yards per game, 104th in the country.
Still, this figures to be a pro-Bowling Green crowd, as fans simply need to make a quick hour-plus jaunt up Interstate 75 to Ford Field, and that works in the favor of the Falcons.
Against the spread
NEW MEXICO STATE +3 (-106) is worth playing, even if it settles back down to the open of +3.5. There have been a lot of conflicting reports about Pavia, as some outlets even had him leaving for the transfer portal.
The Las Cruces Sun-News showed Pavia give an interview this week, and he was practicing and apparently gearing up to play, barring any setbacks.
Over/Under
OVER 48.5 (-110) is the lean here, but go lightly.
First off, yes, the game is in Detroit, but it’s controlled environment conditions inside the Ford Field dome. Second, both of these teams are actually excited to be here, which is a rarity for lower-level bowls.
The Over has hit in 4 straight games for New Mexico State, while going 5-2 in the past 7 non-conference games.
The Over is 6-1 in the past 7 neutral-site games, whole going 4-0 in the past 4 outside of the conference and 5-0 in the past 5 bowl appearances, too.
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