TCU Offense vs. Michigan Defense:
The teams that get into the College Football Playoff tend to have an offense that possesses the ability to attack a defense on the ground, as well as in the air.
The TCU offense is an Air Raid system with big play capability in the passing game and the added benefit of a dangerous run game. Young offensive ooordinator Garrett Riley is in his first year at TCU, having followed Sonny Dykes from SMU where they had one of the nation’s best offensive attacks the past couple of seasons. His play calling centers around the abundance of gifted athletes that the Horned Frogs have at the skill positions, namely their quarterback Max Duggan (#15).
Setting up primarily out of the shotgun formation, this Horned Frogs offense is lead up front by an athletic, veteran offensive line with a rotation of six upperclassmen. The best of this unit is Andrew Coker (#74), a 6-foot-7, 315-pound NFL prospect at right tackle. This is a big, physical bunch up front with surprising agility, but some tendency to miss on perfect technique. TCU’s favorite running play tends to be a downhill power “pin and pull” scheme with two very dangerous running backs in Kendre Miller (#33) and Emari Demercado (#3). While the Horned Frogs offense tends to be pass-heavy, they will stay committed to the power run and option game. In the red zone they show some two-back sets, as well as going from under center for short yardage situations.
Most of the explosive play capability comes from the TCU passing game. Quarterback Max Duggan has two big-bodied receivers on the outside that can pose match-up problems for cornerbacks. Quentin Johnson (#1) and Savion Williams (#18) are both capable of winning battles in man-to-man coverage downfield with their speed and size. Tight end Jared Wiley (#19) is a tall and rangy target at 6-foot-7, 255-pounds, and a dangerous red zone threat. They also like to get the ball in the hands of speedy slot-receiver Derius Davis (#11) with screens and reverses.
Coach Riley will mix up the deck with power runs, play-action passes off of the power looks, a multitude of screen pass looks, some read-option plays and a series of RPO looks. The Horned Frogs’ go-to for explosive plays comes from the deep ball, however. TCU will not hesitate to throw the ball on sideline fades almost every time Max Duggan sees a single-high safety look from the defense.
Expect Michigan defensive coordinator Jesse Minter to come out and attack Max Duggan with blitzes early and often. Michigan has the talent at the cornerback position to go toe-to-toe with the TCU receivers in man-coverage for periods of time, enabling Minter to mix up the looks in the back end. The Wolverines defensive front will need to be able to create some havoc, using their speed and athleticism to disrupt the Horned Frogs’ running game and also to achieve a four-man pass rush.
The key to neutralizing Max Duggan is mixing up coverages to keep him guessing and using creative blitz packages to keep pressure in his face. The Wolverines will also need to be sure and play disciplined in pass-rush situations when the play breaks down and Duggan leaves the pocket. At times the Horned Frogs offense resembles a backyard pick-up game, especially when they are trailing late in a game. During their five comeback wins and one loss (in the Big 12 Championship), TCU showed the ability to go up-tempo and gash defenses with big plays off of RPOs and Max Duggan scrambles.
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The TCU Defense vs. the Michigan Offense:
TCU defensive coordinator Joe Gillespie transformed the Horned Frogs defense from a four-man front to their current 3-3-5 base scheme in 2021. This is an aggressive, attacking defense with multiple coverage capability in the secondary.
320-pound Freshman Damonic Williams (#52) anchors the defensive front at the nose tackle position. He is flanked by a couple of senior defensive ends, in Dylan Horton (#98) and Terrell Cooper (#95) who are both sturdy and agile. Backing up the front three is a unit of large linebackers roaming the second level. Johnny Hodges (#57) at 240lbs, Jamoi Hodge (#6) at 245-pounds, and Dee Winters (#13) at 230lbs, are all great at fitting and slowing down the run.
The Horned Frogs secondary is lead by Thorpe Award winner Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson (#1) at cornerback. The other corner is the long and physical Josh Newton (#24), who can also cover receivers on an island. Nickel-corner Millard Bradford (#28) is a third asset who can cover in man-to-man coverage and tackle in run support. Coach Gillespie will gamble by bringing his safeties up close to the line of scrimmage, and 6-foot, 215-pound strong safety Mark Perry (#3) is used almost like a fourth linebacker in the alley with coverage capability.
This defense will attack with a heavy dose of blitzes and movement up front using slants and stunts. They are not afraid to play Cover-1 against anybody, but will mix up their calls with two-high safety looks as well. At times, this TCU defense has been susceptible to motion and reverse action in the offensive backfield due to their aggressive style of play. The combination of “bad eyes” and lack of speed in the linebacking unit, leaves the door open for big plays off of misdirection.
The Wolverines offense will not shy away from their identity of running the ball early in this game. Look for some trap schemes and reverses to take advantage of this sometimes overly aggressive TCU front. Another way Michigan could keep the Horned Frogs back on their heels, is to use J.J. McCarthy in the running game. The extra threat of McCarthy’s legs from RPO or read-option plays will force TCU edge defenders to play disciplined football.
If Joe Gillespie decides to bring his safeties up in run support too often, the Wolverines could get some chances for explosive plays of their own. At times, this Horned Frogs defense has defended strong running attacks much in the same way as Ohio State did this year. They blitz frequently and take risks with safety depth on first and second down. It could be possible to get receivers behind this defense on multiple occasions and even allow for some explosive runs from Donavan Edwards in the second half.
Special Teams Report:
The Horned Frogs boast one of the top-fifteen kickers in the country in Griffin Kell (#39). He is 16-of-18 on field goals and a perfect 21-of-21 on point after tries. Receiver Derius Davis provides a constant scoring threat in the kick return and punt return game with his elusiveness and top-end speed. Michigan has a slight edge in the punting game and on long field goal attempts if this game comes down to both defenses having success.
Final Tally:
Michigan has the ability to take control of this game if they execute their game plan like they have all season long. The Wolverines will have a slight talent advantage up front on both sides of the ball, making it possible to control time of possession and field position. Michigan’s depth of talent at the linebacker and defensive back positions will prove to be the edge needed to prevent big plays, and win this game and advance to the CFP national championship game.
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