In a think-piece that analyzed every starting quarterback’s weaknesses across the NFL, ESPN writer Aaron Schatz made a compelling case that Los Angeles Chargers’ signal caller Justin Herbert struggles in the second halves of games. In his analysis, Schatz pointed to Herbert’s lower passing DVOA, or defensive-adjusted value over average, as a key indicator of Herbert’s supposed deficiency in this facet of his game, and said that the trend started well before the 2022 season.
The argument goes like this: Herbert’s passing DVOA, which measures his efficiency against an average based on opponent and situation, has dropped from 14.6 percent in first halves to -18.2 percent in second halves this year. This radical change is on par with his numbers in 2021, where his first-half passing DVOA was 23.4 percent and 12.3 percent in the second.
On paper, this might seem like a death sentence to the narrative that Herbert is a clutch performer in crunch time, but in reality, the more basic statistics tell a different story. Herbert has four fourth-quarter comebacks in 2022 and has managed to be much more cautious when throwing into coverage, having thrown only seven interceptions through 13 games.
This isn’t to say that Schatz’s analysis isn’t without merit, but Herbert’s excellent play in this season shouldn’t be swept under the rug because one highly specific statistic points towards inefficiencies in the third and fourth quarters. Like all stats, passing DVOA only tells one part of the story.
Herbert has been without his top receivers for much of the season, and the Chargers have dealt with an overwhelming number of injuries over the course of the year. Star wideout Keenan Allen has played in just six games in 2022, and Mike Williams was out from Week 8 until he returned in Week 11.
Even without these key pieces in the offense for much of the season, Herbert has put himself in a position to surpass the 4,000-yard mark in Week 15 against the Tennessee Titans and should be considered one of the NFL’s top young quarterbacks.