The Houston Texans (1-10-1) will travel to AT&T Stadium to call on the Dallas Cowboys (9-3) Sunday at 1 p.m. ET (FOX). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Texans vs. Cowboys odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
After turning away from QB Davis Mills in favor of Kyle Allen, Texans coach Lovie Smith has decided to go back to Mills against the Cowboys. No matter the QB, the Texans offense has struggled mightily in 2022 and a wholesale change is ahead in the offseason.
RB Dameon Pierce has had a solid season as a rookie, tied for 5th with 198 carries and tied for 8th with 861 yards. Pierce has been the lone bright spot for a dreadful Houston team that has all but secured the No. 1 draft pick.
The Cowboys, despite having QB Dak Prescott and WR CeeDee Lamb, have also relied heavily on the run game in 2022. Tony Pollard has rushed for 852 yards and Ezekiel Elliott has gained 654 yards.
The Cowboys’ ability to score in the run game and in the pass game has helped them overcome injuries and inconsistent play on the offensive line. While the Cowboys defense has been top notch, it is more vulnerable against the run then against the pass.
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Texans at Cowboys odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:41 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Texans +950 (bet $100 to win $950) | Cowboys -2000 (bet $2000 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Texans +17 (-110) | Cowboys -17 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 44.5 (O: -109 | U: -111)
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Texans at Cowboys key injuries
Texans
- WR Niko Collins (foot) questionable
- WR Brandin Cooks (calf) questionable
- CB Derek Stingley Jr. (hamstring) questionable
Cowboys
- DE DeMarcus Lawrence (foot) questionable
- LB Leighton Vander Esch (illness) questionable
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Texans at Cowboys picks and predictions
Prediction
Cowboys 27, Texans 13
Moneyline
PASS.
Dallas at -2000 is far too large to make a play on and the +950 would be a great payout, but it will not hit. For this reason, neither side is a good play, and it is best to stay away.
Against the spread
BET HOUSTON +17 (-110).
Run the ball. This will be the mantra of both sides in this battle for Texas.
Pierce will get 25 or more carries in this game as the Texans just look to not get blown off the field since after a 54-19 victory over the Indianapolis Colts last Sunday, Dallas will come into this game hyped up.
I do not see this game being close or particularly interesting. But I do see it landing within the 17-point number. Therefore, Houston +17 (-110) is my favorite play in this matchup.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 44.5 (-109).
This number is low and getting lower. If it gets to 42.5, I will stay away. But if you can get 44.5, I still like the Under.
According to CBS Sports, since 2010 after Week 8 in games with spreads of 17 or more, the Under has hit 6 of 8 times. While this is not a large sample size, neither are 17-point spreads. We know at this point in the season who teams are. We know for sure what these teams are. Both want to run the ball. The Texans will ride Pierce and the Cowboys will ride Elliott and Pollard. This is the same reason I prefer the Texans ATS as well. The game will be shortened, and Dallas wants to get out injury-free and move on to the next game. The Cowboys are looking forward to the playoffs. This means they are also looking past this game. A breezy game is in store so take the Under 44 (-109).
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