In a welterweight bout on the main card, Bryan Barberena and Rafael dos Anjos meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 42 at Amway Center in Orlando, Fla. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the UFC on ESPN 42: Barberena vs. dos Anjos odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims begin at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, and the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Barberena has picked up 3 consecutive victories, including a Round 2 KO/TKO victory over Robbie Lawler last time out in early July at UFC 276.
Barberena had gone the distance in the 4 consecutive fights prior, going 3-1 in those outings. It’s been a nice rebound after getting knocked out in the 3rd round in consecutive fights against Randy Brown and Vicente Luque in 2019.
Dos Anjos has knocked out in the 5th round last time out in the main event in early July by Rafael Fiziev, snapping a 2-bout win streak, both by decision. dos Anjos had also gone the distance in 4 consecutive outings from July 2019 to March 2022 before his last outing, and 8 of his last 11 fights went the distance.
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UFC on ESPN 42: Barberena vs. Dos Anjos odds
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:20 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Barberena +425 (bet $100 to win $425) | Dos Anjos -575 (bet $575 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -200 | Under +140)
- Fight to go the distance: Yes (-180) | No (+130)
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UFC on ESPN 42: Barberena vs. Dos Anjos picks and predictions
Records: Barberena (18-8-0) | Dos Anjos (31-14-0)
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Take a flyer on BARBERENA (+425), who enters on a 3-fight win streak, including impressive wins over Lawler, Matt Brown and Darian Weeks.
Neither of these guys is a threat to win via submission, and a KO/TKO seems unlikely. Barberena has gone the distance in 4 of his last 5 fights, and Dos Anjos has needed the assistance of the judges to determine a winner in 9 of his past 12 outings.
The fact Barberena has a 4-inch height advantage, and, more importantly, a 2.5-inch reach advantage, is key here. He’ll be able to use his physical advantages to keep the heavily-favorited dos Anjos at a distance.
Barberena also has a 6.11-to-3.58 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, so that will help to wow the judges. As long as he can avoid the takedown, Barberena is a very attractive underdog play.
Over/Under (O/U)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-200) is a little on the expensive side, costing you 2 times your potential return.
However, YES (-180): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE is a slightly better play. Both of these fighters have had a lot of bouts go the distance, and this one will be no different.
If you believe in the underdog you can also take BARBERENA BY POINTS (+800) in the method of victory with a small-unit play, as this is a tremendous value.
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