The #Saints haven’t converted more than 4 third downs in a game since their Week 8 win against the Raiders.
— Ross Jackson (@RossJacksonNOLA) November 28, 2022
Over the past few weeks the New Orleans Saints coaching staff has addressed a common thread. “We’ve got to be better on third down,” is a notion that has been commonly expressed by both head coach Dennis Allen and offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael. Over the course of the last four game, the Saints have not converted more than four third downs in a game. The last time they did came against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 8. Against them the Saints went 7 of 12 for an impressive 58% conversion rate. If you include first downs granted by penalties, the numbers boost to 8 of 13 for 61.5%, tying the NFL’s fourth best rate that week.
Since then, however, New Orleans has struggled on third down:
- Week 9 vs. the Baltimore Ravens: 3/11 (27%)
- Week 10 at the Pittsburgh Steelers: 3/12 (25%)
- Week 11 vs. the Los Angeles Rams: 4/11 (36%)
- Week 12 at the San Francisco 49ers: 4/11 (36%)
Over those four weeks, an additional 3 third down plays resulted in a penalty against the Saints and 1 first down was award by injury. That makes the Saints a combined 15 of 49 on third downs since Week 9. Ranking them No. 25 in third down conversion percentage during that stretch at a 30.6% clip.
The bad news for New Orleans is that these situational woes may continue. With five games remaining, the Saints will face three teams whose defenses rank in the NFL’s top-15 in third down stop percentage. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers rank No. 9 with the Cleveland Browns directly behind them at No. 10. The Saints’ Week 17 opponent the Philadelphia Eagles clock in at No. 15. As for the Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans could catch a break against them as they rank at Nos. 20 and 30 respectively. However, New Orleans converted on 4 first downs in their Week 1 matchup with the Falcons and just 5 when they visited Carolina in Week 3.
So, things could continue to be a struggled Carmichael and his offense as the season goes along. Allen shared his thoughts on how the team’s struggles on third downs during his Monday presser. “You have to put yourself in positive situations,” Allen said. “And then when you’re in those situations you have to execute. And if you’re a step off, then those usually end up in non-conversions as opposed to conversions.”
The tricky part about that is that even when the Saints end up in positive situations, they often do not find the success they would expect. Here are how the Saints’ 49 third downs over the last four games has broken out. We’ll group them by down and distance and explore what New Orleans has done (or has not been doing) that has led to their struggles.