Mexico couldn’t be eliminated no matter the result of Saturday’s World Cup group match against Argentina, but the 2-0 loss to the South Americans puts El Tri on the brink of their first group stage exit from the World Cup since 1978.After a cagey first half that saw El Tri fluster Argentina in the Copa America champions’ final third, the second saw goals from Lionel Messi and Enzo Fernandez make the difference. Argentina stayed alive in its push to get out of the group stage after a shock loss to Saudi Arabia in the first group game.Here are three thoughts as Mexico now looks to work out a great escape to get out of the group’s basement and into the round of 16 for the eighth consecutive time:
Mexico game plan comes undone in one moment
Mexico set up in a way that was designed to fluster Argentina star Messi and the rest of Argentina’s powerful attack. But this was the type of game where a moment of magic could arrive at any time, in which 30 seconds switched off could make the difference.
That moment arrived in the 64th minute, as Messi took a touch and fired past Mexico goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa.
“We made a mistake that had to do with the three midfielders coming together in the same area as Argentina and when we weren’t able to stop that build and the opponent turned us around, they found Messi alone and he hit the goal from a medium distance, but I don’t think it was a game in which he found a lot of space in the final third,” Martino answered testily after a journalist asked him in the news conference about leaving Messi plenty of space.
“But I also understand that Argentina’s goals can change the view of what happened over the 90 minutes. Normally, that happens because you guys normally analyze results.”
Call it lazy journalism if you must, but the result is what matters here. If Mexico played a terrible match and came away with a 1-0 win, its prospects of getting out of the group and continuing toward its ultimate goal of winning the World Cup would be much stronger.
Going into a match Mexico had a game plan that, as Martino himself said in his news conference, anticipated few attacking opportunities and relied on getting a goal on a set piece or other chance encounter. That sets a team up for failure when, predictably, one of the best players in the world makes a great play.
It’s a strange game to go with that strategy, but it’s what Martino and his staff did. Now, they’re very much working from behind going into the final match.
Midfield eventually breaks down as Martino drops Edson
El Tri kept a three-man midfield but changed personnel as Martino went from a 4-3-3 in the first game to a 5-3-2 in the second. But this change saw Martino drop Edson Alvarez, who has been one of the national team’s most consistent performers.
Reports in Mexico indicate that the Ajax player’s late arrival into Mexico’s camp in Spain before the World Cup meant he didn’t have as much time to get familiar with the formation change, leading Martino to utilize experienced midfielders Andres Guardado and Hector Herrera with Luis Chavez behind them.
While Martino couldn’t have seen the knock to Guardado in the first half coming, it’s been obvious all cycle that Guardado and HH aren’t able to hang with a top team for 90 minutes any longer.
“Edson? Nothing. I understood this was the team that had to start,” Martino said when asked if Alvarez was kept out for an injury or another reason. But he could’ve used the Ajax ace in the middle, especially considering Alvarez has the versatility to slot into the center back line if Martino truly wanted to utilize the midfield trio he had.
The midfielders weren’t the only players to run out of gas.
With the strategy of having typical wingers Hirving “Chucky” Lozano and Alexis Vega start up top and essentially take on the entire Argentina defense on their own, the players both ended up coming off looking worse for the wear.
“We had thought the tiredness of the two forwards was going to be significant, and we’d have to make changes. We trained in that way. We decided on the Vega change, Chucky asked to come out just before the Argentina goal and that’s where we re-accommodated and went to our habitual system taking a guy out of the back five.”
That Martino’s plan took into account the amount of running the two forward players would be doing but apparently not what he was asking from Guardado, HH and Chavez is puzzling. A platoon approach may have worked better or even sacrificing Herrera rather than Alvarez to go with a player more recently asked to shut down top players in the UEFA Champions League.
Mexico needs goals and goals and goals, but from where?
El Tri’s scenarios to advance are clear and all of them involve, first and foremost, beating Saudi Arabia.
Mexico also could use some help in the other game, though there are ways through with all possible results. If Poland beats Argentina and Mexico gets the win, El Tri advance. If Argentina wins and drives Poland’s goal difference down, Mexico can advance with some goals of its own in a victory. A draw in the other game combined with a Mexico win by four or more also would see Mexico move through in second place.
Here's how #ElTri and the rest of Group C sit as the dust settles. To get out of the group, #Mex needs:
– A win against Saudi Arabia to get to 4 points
AND
– A Poland win
OR
– A combination of an Argentina win + Mexico win by a margin that swings the GD pic.twitter.com/N4vrnqfRQU— Jon Arnold (@ArnoldcommaJon) November 26, 2022
Clearly, the most likely scenarios to get through involve Mexico not only beating Saudi Arabia, but also scoring more than once. But where are those goals going to come from? After 180 minutes of soccer, Mexico is yet to find the back of the net. It’s clear Raul Jimenez has only about a half-hour in the tank. We’ve yet to see Martino lean on Rogelio Funes Mori. And while Lozano and Vega both have had good performances in each of the first two contests, they both work better with a No. 9 to set up after creating from the wing.
“While we still have a chance, we’ll keep trying. It definitely will be difficult,” Martino said. “The second Poland goal hurt us, and Argentina’s second goal hurt us more.”
It’s true that Enzo Fernandez’s goal was a big blow for Mexico. But Martino knew this was the situation from the moment the draw was revealed. Even still, he left creative players like Diego Lainez off his roster and never made up with Mexico’s all-time leading scorer Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez.
A game like Saturday’s was screaming for a player who could come off the bench and make something from nothing for himself, or a gritty player in the middle to claw a goal back. Instead, Mexico now is heading into the last match wondering how it can score all the goals it needs to extend its tournament.
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