The New York Jets are a good football team. Their 6-4 record reflects this. They’ve beaten the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills. They’ve got top 10 defense and have given up 17 points or fewer in five of their last six games.
They are also in no way, shape, or form a Super Bowl threat. The reason why is simple; their quarterback is terrible.
New York hoped Zach Wilson could grow into a franchise player befitting the No. 2 overall draft pick. Instead, he’s made only minor strides for a team that’s improved everywhere but behind center. Wilson was a disaster in Week 11, dooming his Jets to a loss in a game where his defense held the New England Patriots’ offense to three total points.
The second-year quarterback’s final numbers:
9-22, 77 yards, zero touchdowns, zero interceptions and a 50.8 passer rating.
While you can credit him for not turning the ball over, it wasn’t for a lack of trying. Here’s a fourth quarter soft-toss to the sideline that could have easily been a game-deciding pick-six.
The Patriots righted this wrong when Marcus Jones housed a punt two plays later for a 10-3 win. While Wilson didn’t feel like he let down a defense that had to take the field for more than 35 minutes Sunday thanks to 10 different drives ending in punts, it’s clear he most certainly did.
.@Connor_J_Hughes: "Do you feel like you let the defense down at all?"
Zach Wilson: "No." pic.twitter.com/tiJiTSrFPE
— Jets Videos (@snyjets) November 20, 2022
Through 11 weeks, the Jets rank seventh in the NFL in expected points added (EPA) per run play, even with rookie sensation Breece Hall out for the year after tearing his ACL in October. Their -0.064 EPA per pass play ranks 27th. While there have been some good Wilson moments within — a steady game against the Dolphins, a low-key 18-25, zero turnover performance to beat the Bills in Week 9 — the bad has outweighed the good.
More importantly, there haven’t been any sustainable signs of growth. Wilson shook off a rough game against the Patriots in Week 8 and came back to play composed football seven days later vs. Buffalo. Then he had the chance to learn from his mistakes with a second matchup against Bill Belichick, this time with a bye week to help him prepare. Instead, he was somehow statistically worse.
On Sunday, Wilson attempted 11 passes that traveled at least eight yards downfield. He completed only two of them.
In fairness, it was windy at Gillette Stadium Sunday afternoon. But this isn’t an isolated incident. Wilson, a player whose pro day workout put one of college football’s prettiest deep balls on full display, has been completely deficient when it comes to making plays downfield.
Per SIS, Wilson had only attempted 16 passes at least 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage in 2022 — tied for third-fewest among all quarterbacks with at least 150 pass attempts through Week 10. He’d completed only three, though Sunday’s performance boosts him to a not-much better four of 20.
His IQR — SIS’s proprietary quarterback metric — sits at 16, which ranks 32nd out of 32 qualified QBs. This is a stark difference from the potential he’d shown in flashes as a rookie, where he’d thrown 41 deep balls in 13 games and completed 16 of them despite, arguably, a lesser receiving corps.
It’s not hard to see how this is a problem for New York. The player it drafted to be the centerpiece of a rebuild is the one actively holding the team back.
When the Jets win, they often win around him; he’s had 154 passing yards or fewer in three of his five victories as a starter. That’s not always the case. He’s recorded a passer rating under 75.0 12 times in 20 career games — Brock Osweiler’s career average was 78.0. New York’s record in those games? 4-8.
It’s clear frustration is building in the locker room. While rookie Garrett Wilson — a player who told the media he preferred veteran backup Joe Flacco over Zach Wilson back in the preseason — didn’t name names while talking with reporters after Sunday’s game, it’s clear he expects more from an offense loaded with high-potential players.
“This (expletive) is not ok. Straight up, it is not ok. How many total yards did we have? That (expletive) is not going to fly,” Wilson said, per NFL reporter Mike Giardi. “We got the dudes. It’s time to be consistent. It’s time to win the games we should win. It is unacceptable. … I feel this is a wake up for some of the people in the facility. For us in the facility to get on our details. All of us.”
He’s right! Per the NFL’s Next Gen Stats model, Wilson has been worth -15.3 expected points added (EPA) in his seven games this season. That’s over a 5-2 stretch where the only losses have been single-possession defeats to the Patriots (by five points in Week 9 and by seven in Week 11). It’s not a stretch to suggest even an average quarterback would have New York in the midst of a seven-game winning streak and an 8-2 record.
This is why Wilson is untenable. He is an active detriment to a developing team, the bleach seeping into the fertilizer that was supposed to help everything grow. He’s equipped only to handle the safest, most basic playbooks. The deep ball he used to devastate defenses in his final season at BYU has proven to be a bait-and-switch.
He’ll likely get another chance to turn things around with the Jets, even if Sunday’s trajectory sticks. New York is too good to slide into contention to take one of 2023’s premier quarterback prospects. With an estimated $3.8 million in effective salary cap space next spring, the Jets have some, but not a ton, of room to add a veteran who could push him for playing time a bit harder than Flacco does currently.
Even so, the Jets, with an offense head coach Robert Saleh described as, well …
"It was dogs—."
-Jets HC Robert Saleh on the teams' offense in the second half.
(via @snyjets) pic.twitter.com/kgZzEIyhLS
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) November 20, 2022
may be in position to scour the free agent and trade marketplaces in search of something better, even if it means potentially further stunting the growth of a flower that steadfastly refuses to blossom. Would the Jets trade a second round pick for Derek Carr if the Las Vegas Raiders decide to move on? Would they make a run at Jimmy Garoppolo? Try to bring back Geno Smith if the Seattle Seahawks don’t extend him? Try to coax Tom Brady to New York like late stage Brett Favre???
Any of these options would be better than what we’ve seen from Wilson. And without much indication he can sustain a steady path of development, the Jets’ front office has to consider them all. New York can certainly still be a playoff team in 2022. But no one’s going to take them seriously with Wilson behind center unless something drastically changes.
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