Last week was a perfect run through our official prop bet recommendations. Donovan Peoples-Jones cooked, Justin Fields ran a bunch and Kenny Pickett did Kenny Pickett things, even in victory, that lifted these bets deeper into the black. The only hiccup was Sam Ehlinger’s under 33.5 rushing yards getting scratched when he was pulled from the starting lineup — but since Matt Ryan uncorked a 39-yard scramble against the Las Vegas Raiders, that was probably pretty fortunate.
I backfilled that with two Taylor Heinicke props over on our For The Win Instagram page — over 0.5 interceptions and longest receptions over 33.5 yards. Both hit, so let’s call it a 5-0 week in total. That gets me over the .667/two-thirds win percentage after 10 weeks and while that absolutely won’t last it hopefully led you to a little extra cash.
Here are my plays for Sunday’s games in Week 11.
Terry McLaurin OVER 59.5 receiving yards. McLaurin has 36 targets in his last four games and is, understandably, Taylor Heinicke’s huckleberry downfield. He’s hit 70-plus yards in three of those games and now gets a Houston secondary that’s given up a 119.0 passer rating to opposing QBs over the same stretch.
Justin Fields OVER 68.5 rushing yards. It’s a high total for a quarterback, but Fields just gashed the league’s 27th-ranked rushing defense for 147 yards. Now he gets the 25th-best run-stopping team in Atlanta.
Jonathan Taylor OVER 85.5 rushing yards. Speaking of bad run defenses, here come the Philadelphia Eagles, who’ve given up a shade under 155 rushing yards per game since their bye. Taylor, healthy again, ran 22 times for 147 yards in Jeff Saturday’s coaching debut and remains the most reliable facet of the Indianapolis offense.
Kenny Pickett UNDER 215.5 passing yards. The Bengals have given up fewer than 175 passing yards in four of their last five games. Pickett’s under was the play last week and we’re riding it again.
Russell Wilson OVER 225.5 passing yards. Listen, I don’t like taking a Wilson over any more than you do. But he’s hit this total four of his last five games and now gets the league’s worst passing defense at home. Yes, most of his key wideouts are beat up, but still … it’s the Raiders.
Darnell Mooney OVER 43.5 receiving yards. His over hit by the skin of its teeth in Week 9. In Week 10 he topped it a little more comfortably. But his yardage total remains mired in the low 40s, which means I’m gonna keep hammering it.
Zach Wilson UNDER 192.5 passing yards. A Sunday morning addition based on the weather report in Foxborough. The wind should further discourage Wilson’s downfield shots, so even though this is a low total and he went for 300-plus yards last time he saw the Patriots, a limited performance seems likely.
Last week: 5-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 49-24 (.671)
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