The Denver Nuggets (9-5) visit the American Airlines Center Friday to take on the Dallas Mavericks (8-6). Tip is set for 8:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Nuggets vs. Mavericks odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.
The Nuggets are coming into this game down many of their key scorers, including 2-time MVP C Nikola Jokic, who leads the team in points, rebounds and assists.
The Nuggets are 6-8 against the spread (ATS) this season and 5-4 straight up on the road. Denver has failed to cover in 4 of its last 5 games. It is 0-1 ATS in its last 10 as an underdog.
The Mavs are led by star G Luka Doncic, arguably the MVP frontrunner at this point in the season, Doncic is averaging 34.4 points, 7.8 assists, and 8.8 rebounds per game.
Crazy enough, the Mavs have failed to cover 8 straight games and are 0-9-1 ATS in their last 10 despite winning 6 of those straight up. Dallas is 8-6 O/U this season as well.
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Nuggets at Mavericks odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:22 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Nuggets +310 (bet $100 to win $310) | Mavericks -400 (bet $400 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Nuggets +9.5 (-120) | Mavericks -9.5 (+100)
- Over/Under (O/U): 215.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Nuggets at Mavericks key injuries
Nuggets
- F Aaron Gordon (non-Covid illness) quesitonable
- C Nikola Jokic (health and safety protocols) out
- G Jamal Murray (health and safety protocols) out
Mavericks
- F Maxi Kleber (back) out
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
Nuggets at Mavericks picks and predictions
Prediction
Mavericks 112, Nuggets 102
Moneyline
PASS.
Given Dallas is at home and has struggled over their last 10 games, the -400 is unplayable. Denver +325 has some value, but not enough to consider with Murray and Jokic out.
Against the spread
BET MAVERICKS -9.5 (+100).
The Mavericks’ luck ATS should come to an end soon, and the Jokic-less Nuggets should struggle to score and keep pace with Doncic and company.
Denver’s key strength isn’t in its rebounding or turnovers but rather efficiency, and without its 2 key distributors, I expect them to struggle to generate offense.
The Nuggets are also an awful defensive team, ranking 23rd in defensive rating. The Mavericks sit 5th and should be able to heavily limit what a shorthanded Nuggets offense can generate.
Back the Mavericks -9.5 (+100).
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 215.5 (-110).
The Mavericks rank last in the NBA in pace, and there’s really no reason they should want to push the pace.
The Nuggets, on the other hand, already sit 13th, so there isn’t much improvement to be had there. Even if G Bones Hyland and company push the pace, Dallas should halt those efforts.
Neither team grabs many offensive boards, and the Mavs have the fourth-lowest turnover rate which means possessions will likely be longer as well. Dallas had gone Under in 2 straight and in 4 of its last 6.
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