In a women’s strawweight championship bout in the co-main event, Carla Esparza and Zhang Weili meet Saturday at UFC 281 at Madison Square Garden in New York. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the UFC 281: Esparza vs. Zhang odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The early prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with the prelims on ESPNews/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET, and the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View.
Esparza has picked up victories in 6 straight fights, including a split-decision victory over Rose Namajunas at UFC 274 as “Cookie Monster” earned the women’s strawweight strap for the first time.
In the past 6 fights, Esparza has just 1 finish, a KO/TKO win over Yan Xiaonan in late May 2021. Oddly enough, 3 of the wins were via split decision, including the win over Namajunas, with one majority decision and a unanimous decision against Virna Jandiroba in April 2019.
Zhang knocked out Joanna Jedrzejczyk with a Round 2 KO/TKO at UFC 275 in June, bouncing back after a pair of losses to Namajunas. The knockout prompted Joanna to lay down her gloves and retire in the octagon.
Zhang went the distance in 3 of the past 7 fights, with a split-decision loss to Namajunas as the most recent decision.
The Chinese fighter has the punching power to cut Esparza’s night very short. Zhang has a 5.78-to-2.20 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, while Esparza has the advantage in the takedown average lead. Zhang will look to keep this an upright brawl, while Esparza’s best chance is to get this to the canvas.
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UFC 281: Esparza vs. Zhang odds
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:38 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Esparza +270 (bet $100 to win $270) | Zhang -380 (bet $380 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 4.5 rounds (Over +102 | Under -140)
- Fight to go distance: Yes (+105) | No (-145)
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UFC 281: Esparza vs. Zhang picks and predictions
Records: Esparza (20-6-0) | Zhang (22-3-0)
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Zhang (-380) will cost you over 3 1/2 times your potential return if you believe she is going to snag the title strap from Esparza. While I agree Zhang is going to pick up the win here, betting the 2-way line straight up is too risky.
Esparza isn’t going to give up her belt easily. She makes everyone work for it, going the distance in 5 of the past 6 fights and 10 of the past 12.
ZHANG BY POINTS (+210) for the chance to double up is the best play on the board in this fight as long as Esparza can avoid the big punch knockout.
Over/Under (O/U)
OVER 4.5 ROUNDS (+102) is a decent play at plus money, and better than Yes (+105): Fight to go the distance if you don’t want to declare a winner, and want a little wiggle room. Either of these wagers is good, though, as Esparza goes the distance frequently and this will be no exception.
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