It a lightweight bout on the main card, Dan Hooker will face Claudio Puelles on Saturday at UFC 281 at Madison Square Garden in New York City. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the UFC 281: Dan Hooker vs. Claudio Puelles odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The early prelims and prelims are available on ESPN+ with the early prelims at 6 p.m. ET and the prelims at 8 p.m. ET. The main card is available via pay-per-view at 10 p.m. ET.
Hooker looks to get back on track after dropping 4 of his last 5 fights. He’s bounced between featherweight and lightweight in his career and lost his last fight by 1st round TKO to Arnold Allen in March. Hooker’s last 3 losses all came in the 1st round.
Puelles is coming off a 1st-round submission victory over Clay Guida which earned him Performance of the Night at UFC Fight Night 205 in April. Puelles is currently on a 5-bout win streak, with 4 of those victories coming in the 3rd round. Seven of Puelles’ wins have been by submission — he’s won with his deadly kneebar in 3 of his 6 fights in the UFC.
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UFC 281: Hooker vs. Puelles odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 4 p.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Hooker -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Puelles +130 (bet $100 to win $130)
- Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over +110 | Under -150)
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes (+135) | No (-190)
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UFC 281: Hooker vs. Puelles picks and predictions
Records: Dan Hooker (21-12) | Claudio Puelles (13-2)
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
This is a tough matchup because Hooker’s recent string of losses came against a higher level of competition than Puelles’ recent wins. Hooker’s experience and striking ability (4.91 strikes landed per minute to 1.99 by Puelles) give him an edge over Puelles in the striking game, while Puelles’ quickness and aptitude for squeezing in submissions make him a wild card that’s tough to bet against.
This fight will come down to whether Puelles can get Hooker on the ground and keep him off guard with strikes and sneaky submission attempts. The last 4.5 years have shown us that Puelles can do that, so I’d lean toward PUELLES (+130) to capture the win by submission and climb the UFC’s lightweight ranks.
Over/Under (O/U)
Puelles has a tendency to struggle early before catching his opponents in a submission for the win. With that in mind, it’s difficult to say in which round he’ll pull that off against Hooker. That’s why it’s best to AVOID the Over/Under for this bout.
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