Clemson returns home Saturday looking to bounce back from its loss at Notre Dame against Louisville at Memorial Stadium. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. The game will be televised by ESPN.
Clemson’s defense vs. Louisville’s offense: Clemson won’t have to wait long to find out if its woeful defensive performance against Notre Dame was an outlier or a larger cause for concern.
If we’re being honest, the run defense had been trending downward a bit even before the Irish ran over, around and through the Tigers for 263 yards. There were the 203 yards Florida State ran for two games earlier, and Syracuse’s star running back, Sean Tucker, ripped off more than 10 yards a pop on his limited touches in Clemson’s most recent home game.
Clemson defensive coordinator Wesley Goodwin and some of his players have been lamenting missed tackles and poor run fits for weeks now. Yet the Tigers haven’t come up with many solutions, which isn’t a good sign considering what the Tigers will have to deal with Saturday.
Louisville will bring the nation’s 25th-ranked rushing attack into Memorial Stadium, and it’s led by the Cardinals’ dynamic dual-threat quarterback. Malik Cunningham isn’t Lamar Jackson, but the fifth-year senior has moments that remind folks of Louisville’s former Heisman Trophy winner. Just ask Clemson, which had all sorts of problems containing the speedy Cunningham on the ground last season (134 rushing yards, two rush TDs) in a six-point win in Louisville.
If that happens again Saturday, Clemson will be in trouble. But it’s not just Cunningham’s speed outside that the Tigers have to worry about. Running backs Tiyon Evans (6.7 yards per carry) and Trevion Cooley (4.8) can be explosive between the tackles if they get going, so Clemson’s defense will have to make sure it’s got running lanes accounted for both inside and out.
Louisville’s passing game is average at best. Question is, will Clemson contain Cunningham and company enough to force the Cardinals to have to go to it more often than they’d like? Clemson still owns the nation’s No. 14 run defense, so the Tigers are certainly capable and have enough talent in the front seven to do so. But Clemson needs to put it all together – and fast. Advantage: Draw
Clemson’s offense vs. Louisville’s defense: Clemson’s offense is going in the wrong direction. D.J. Uiagalelei has turned in back-to-back subpar performances that have gotten him temporarily benched, so the quarterback play is in flux. The explosive plays through the air have disappeared in recent games, and a sudden turnover problem – six in the last two games – has only compounded the issues.
One positive for the group has been the play of Will Shipley and an improving offensive line, though even the run game as a whole has been hot and cold. Clemson brings the nation’s 49th-ranked rush offense (174 yards per game) into this game, but the Tigers are averaging just 142 against teams not named Louisiana Tech and Syracuse and are coming off their lowest rushing output of the season (90 yards).
Given the quarterback situation at the moment – freshman Cade Klubnik hasn’t looked great either in his limited opportunities – perhaps this is a game where the Tigers try to ride Shipley, Phil Mafah and Kobe Pace if Pace (ankle) is able to return Saturday after missing the last four games. But wanting to do that and actually being able to against one of the nation’s most disruptive defenses are different things.
Louisville is tied for FBS lead in sacks on a per-game basis and ranks 11th nationally in tackles for loss. Defensive coordinator Bryan Brown dials up that pressure from just about every spot on the field. Fourteen different Cardinals have at least one sack led by interior lineman YaYa Diaby’s 6.5, so keeping Louisville out of the backfield and giving Uiagalelei (or Klubnik) and the backs room to operate has to be the No. 1 objective for Clemson’s offensive line.
The Cardinals are also tied with Western Kentucky for the most turnovers forced in college football this season (24), which has helped Louisville hold teams to just 14.5 points on average during its four-game winning streak. It’s a defense oozing confidence going up against an offense that isn’t. Advantage: Louisville
Special teams: Louisville’s Mark Vassett (44.7-yard average) has been one of the ACC’s top punters all season in helping the Cardinals flip the field. Clemson’s Aidan Swanson is averaging nearly 42 yards a boot, though Clemson failed to protect him on a blocked punt last week that went for a touchdown.
Each team’s placekickers have been solid. James Turner is 14 of 16 on field goals for Louisville while B.T. Potter has connected on 15 of 17 for Clemson. Louisville’s return game isn’t much to write home about (3.26 yards on punt returns, 19.7 on kickoffs). Shipley is a threat as a kickoff returner for Clemson (26.4 yards per return), though neither team has taken a kick to the house this season.
But with four of them on the season, Clemson has shown a knack for some timely blocked kicks. Can the Tigers come up with another one Saturday? Advantage: Draw
Bottom line: Perhaps playing this game at home is the advantage Clemson needs. The Tigers have won 38 straight at Death Valley after all, so there’s something to be said for that. But now is a bad time to be showing defensive cracks with another capable running game coming to town, and the offense isn’t in a good place ahead of a matchup with a havoc-wreaking defense. It has all the ingredients of putting the nation’s longest active home winning streak in serious jeopardy.
Prediction: Louisville 21, Clemson 17
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