We were so close last week. We were one Nico Collins groin injury — and eight receiving yards — away from a 7-0 record. Instead, we settled for 6-1 thanks to big rushing performances from Brian Robinson, Dameon Pierce and a pre-injury Breece Hall (aw…).
That leaves us with an undeniably unsustainable .660 batting average on this year’s prop bets, considerably better than last year’s 57 percent mark and a massive candidate for regression. We’re due to fall back to earth soon, but we’re also on a heater thanks to a 12-3 record the last two weeks.
So which is gonna win out? The law of averages or the gambler’s law of thermodynamics? Let’s put that to the test with Week 8’s prop bets. Here’s what I’ve got for Sunday’s games.
Trevor Lawrence UNDER 214.5 passing yards. The Broncos have a top three defense that’s especially dominant against the pass thanks in large part to Patrick Surtain’s emergence as a true lockdown cornerback. Denver has only allowed more than 200 passing yards once this season — against Justin Herbert in Week 6.
Travis Etienne OVER 69.5 rushing yards. It’s a tough assignment against the Broncos, but Etienne is the Jags’ unquestioned RB1 and about to step into a massive workload after last week’s 100-plus yard performance. Like with James Robinson before him, we’re gonna ride his overs until the wheels fall off (or they get unreasonably high).
Kenny Pickett OVER 218.5 passing yards. The Eagles’ passing defense is even better than the Broncos’, but Pickett is likely to be playing from behind throughout this game — a scenario that led to 327 yards against the Bills and their top-ranked defense in Week 5.
Melvin Gordon UNDER 39.5 rushing yards. The Jets’ 14th-ranked rushing defense held him to 11 carries and 33 yards last week. Now he gets the Jaguars’ 15th-ranked unit.
Chase Claypool OVER 39.5 receiving yards.
George Pickens OVER 37.5 receiving yards. It really feels like the Steelers are going to be throwing the ball a lot for a game in which they’ll likely be trailing for three quarters. Claypool has 24 targets in his last three games. Pickens has 28 in his last four. These two young wideouts could brute force their way over their Week 8 totals. The Eagles have a great secondary, but it’s hard accounting for all the viable playmakers in the Pittsburgh receiving game.
DeVonta Smith OVER 54.5 receiving yards. The Steelers have given up just under 210 receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts. Non-WR1s like Nelson Agholor, Corey Davis, Gabe Davis, Khalil Shakir and Jaylen Waddle have all gone for 70-plus yards against them this fall.
DJ Moore OVER 58.5 receiving yards. Moore had 10 targets last week against the Buccaneers with PJ Walker at quarterback. Now he draws the league’s worst passing defense on a week where star cornerback AJ Terrell is nursing an injury.
Last week: 6-1 (.857)
Season to date: 35-18 (.660)
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