Week 7 is one of the most boring lineups of NFL action in recent memory.
There’s one matchup between two teams with winning records and they’re the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans — two teams that had 0.5 wins between them two weeks into the 2022 season. Thursday night featured two 2-4 teams. Monday night brings the Chicago Bears front and center for their third national broadcast in six weeks.
In terms of Sundays, this may be as good as you’re gonna get to head outside, roll out to a pumpkin patch, visit some family, or generally anything else that takes you away from the television. But if you’re committed to a slate of games that looks entirely forgettable on paper, well, at least we can make Week 7 interesting.
Our profitable run through early-season prop bet lines continued in Week 6, snapping a two-week slump. Last Sunday’s difference-maker? Tom Brady getting stuffed on his only run of the game, locking in his 0.5 rushing yards under and making it 10 straight games without positive yardage on the ground for him. Should we venture back into that bizarre world of minuscule QB rushing props?
Here’s what I’ve got for Week 7.
Taylor Heinicke UNDER 224.5 passing yards. In his last seven games of 2021 — after opponents had churned through his game tape — he topped this number only once. The Packers have a solid secondary and a weak run defense, which suggests Ron Rivera’s best maneuver is to grind this game out on the ground. Green Bay has faced shaky QBs each of the past three weeks and held all three to fewer than 215 passing yards.
Brian Robinson Jr. OVER 51.5 rushing yards. Robinson wasn’t great against the Bears last week and still ran for 60 yards because Ron Rivera doesn’t trust Antonio Gibson. Now he gets the Packers and their 32-ranked rushing defense — a team that’s given up at least 125 rushing yards in five of six games this season.
Travis Etienne OVER 48.5 rushing yards. Etienne is now outsnapping James Robinson in the Jacksonville backfield and has a favorable matchup against the Giants. If Khalil Herbert, Tony Pollard and Kenyan Drake can all run for 50-plus yards against New York’s 29th-ranked rushing defense, so can Etienne.
Nick Chubb OVER 72.5 rushing yards. Last week’s 12-carry performance against the Patriots had a chilling effect on Chubb’s rushing yards prop. He’s had at least 17 carries and 87 yards in each of the other five games he’s played this season and still leads the league in rushing yards per game (108). The Ravens’ rush defense ranks 24th, so as long as the Browns aren’t trailing for 55 straight minutes this is a pretty attainable number.
Breece Hall OVER 69.5 rushing yards. Like Travis Etienne and James Robinson before him, I have grown smitten with a young running back and plan to bet all his overs until the lines either become untenable or he explodes into a million pieces. 70 yards? TENABLE.
Dameon Pierce OVER 64.5 rushing yards. Lovie Smith has seen the light; Pierce is his guy now. Expect around 20 carries and fresh legs coming off a bye week against a vulnerable defense.
DAMEON PIERCE SZN IS IN FULL EFFECT🔥 pic.twitter.com/rCIcz1jQ2u
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) October 19, 2022
Nico Collins OVER 40.5 receiving yards. Look, I don’t like betting on two Texans overs any more than you do. But Collins gets a favorable matchup against the league’s 30th-ranked passing defense (171.5 yards per game given up to wideouts) and has hit 41-plus yards in each of his last four appearances.
Last week: 6-2 (.750)
Season to date: 29-17 (.630)