What if Brett Rypien is better than Russell Wilson in Nathaniel Hackett’s offense?

What if backup Brett Rypien is better in the Broncos’ offense than Russell Wilson? The Broncos may be about to find out.

The Denver Broncos are on the verge of their second potential quarterback nightmare of the 2022 season.

The first quarterback nightmare, of course, are the early results of the trade in which Denver sent multiple players and high picks to the Seahawks for one Russell Carrington Wilson. So far, that move has been an absolute disaster for Denver, for multiple documented reasons. Wilson currently ranks 20th in both DVOA and DYAR among starting quarterbacks, and the tape is even worse. The schism between the offense you have to run with Wilson, and the offense head coach Nathaniel Hackett wants to run, is obvious. That’s not all Wilson’s fault — Hackett has had more than his share of schematic and situational issues in his first year as a head coach — but it’s not working, and that’s obvious. Outside of the odd unstructured play where somebody comes open because everything has fallen apart, and Wilson can extend the play, Denver’s offense has been a mess.

Now, with Wilson out against the Jets on Sunday, and possibly beyond that, with a hamstring injury, Denver will throw backup Brett Rypien to the wolves in the person of the New York Jets’ defense. That would seem to be yet another recipe for disaster, but between how badly things have gone for Wilson so far, and what I saw from Rypien in the 2022 preseason, I’m wondering if Rypien has a better chance to succeed in Hackett’s offense than Wilson has.

And that’s Denver’s second quarterback nightmare if it happens — especially beyond the Jets game, if Wilson is unable to return for the Broncos’ Week 8 game against the Jaguars. What if the Broncos gave up all that capital, and signed Wilson to a five-year, $245 million contract, and the guy you took as an undrafted free agent in 2020, who’s making $965,000 in the last year of his three-year rookie deal, is as good or better?

Hackett has wanted Wilson to be more of a pocket passer — that’s clear from the tape — and that’s never been Wilson’s game. Per Sports Info Solutions, Wilson has 190 dropbacks from the pocket this season. He’s completed 108 of 176 passes from the pocket for 1,317 yards, 644 air yards, five touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 86.8. Among quarterbacks this season with at least 50 attempts from the pocket, Wilson’s passer rating ranks 24th.

Not ideal. So, when watching Rypien’s tape from the 2022 preseason, I focused on explosive plays from the pocket, and how they were created. And I think I found a quarterback with whom Hackett and his staff might be more comfortable. This is not to insinuate that Brett Rypien is a better quarterback than Russell Wilson — from a traits perspective, that’s obviously not the case. But when you watch Rypien operate a simplified preseason version of that offense, against simplified preseason defenses… it looks pretty interesting.

What stands out about Rypien in 2022, and represents a drastic improvement over anything you’d see in 2020 or 2021, is how well he sees the field, and is able to manipulate and exploit one-on-one matchups downfield. And this is not just a case of a quarterback zinging the ball to schemed-open targets — Hackett’s offense doesn’t really do that in any obvious fashion. What Rypien did in the preseason was to make multiple tight-window throws with timing and rhythm, putting the ball where it had to be for his receivers.

Two examples of that against the Bills in Week 2 of the preseason really stood out. Whether he was hitting his target downfield off a simple crosser…

…or carving up Buffalo’s Cover-1…

…Rypien showed that he had an understanding of pocket presence and movement, safety manipulation with his eyes, and the touch and velocity required to make big-time throws.

That’s not all there is to quarterback play, of course, but when you compare these reps with what the schemed passing game has looked like with Wilson in there… there’s so much randomness, and while that’s always been Wilson’s thing, there have been more instances this season in which it hasn’t worked, or it’s worked because somebody blew a coverage. Even in those cases, Wilson’s timing and rhythm have proven problematic.

“It’s a combination,” Hackett said Thursday, when asked how things might change with Rypien under center. “We will always want to be sure that we’re doing the things that is right for the quarterback that’s out there. We typically put a game plan together and we talk through it. Some guys like other things, some like the same things. We just want to be sure we’re doing—whoever is out there, that we have the best plays for those guys.”

So, that’s the $245 million question for the Denver Broncos now. What if their backup is better in their offense than the starter for whom they came as close to mortgaging the franchise as was possible?

What a nightmare.