Update 9:43 p.m. ET: Monday’s Game 5 of the ALDS between the New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians was postponed because of rain in New York and rescheduled for Tuesday, 4:07 p.m. ET.
Original column below (published 1:46 p.m. ET)
The Cleveland Guardians and the New York Yankees meet in a deciding Game 5 of their AL Division Series at Yankee Stadium Monday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Guardians vs. Yankees odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Best-of-5 series: Tied 2-2
Regular-season series: Yankees won 5-1
The Guardians blew a golden opportunity to finish off the heavily-favored Yankees Sunday night in Game 4 at Progressive Field but lost 4-2. Now, Cleveland faces the unsavory task of playing a decisive Game 5 in front of a hostile New York crowd.
Cleveland proved it can win in the Bronx before, however, winning 4-2 in 10 innings Friday in Game 2. In that game, Monday’s Yankees starter RHP Jameson Taillon was the losing pitcher after allowing 2 ER on 3 H without recording an out in the 10th inning.
The Yankees have managed just 15 runs through 4 games, or an average of 3.75 runs per game across 36 innings in this series. They led the AL with 4.98 runs per game during the regular season.
The Guardians have scored 13 runs in the series for 3.25 runs per game, also below they regular-season average (4.31).
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Guardians at Yankees projected starters
RHP Aaron Civale vs. RHP Jameson Taillon
Civale (5-6, 4.92 ERA) made 20 regular-season starts. He had a 1.19 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 97 IP. This will be his 1st-career postseason appearance.
- 2022 road stats: 1-3, 5.88 ERA (52 IP, 34 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 49 K, .265 opponent batting average, 6 HR in 11 starts
- 2022 vs. Yankees: 0-2, 10.00 ERA (9 IP, 10 ER), 1.67 WHIP, 9 K, .343 opponent BA, 3 HR in 2 starts
Taillon (14-5, 3.91 ERA) had a 1.13 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 through 177 1/3 IP in 32 regular-season starts. Friday’s 2-run outing in the Game 2 loss was his 1st-career postseason appearance.
- 2022 home stats: 7-2, 3.47 ERA (90 2/3 IP, 35 ER), 1.14 WHIP, 88 K, .246 opponent BA, 10 HR in 16 starts
- 2022 vs. Guardians: 1 start, 1-0, 1.80 ERA (5 IP, 1 ER), 7 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 4-1 home win April 22 – his 3rd outing of the season
Guardians at Yankees odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:03 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Guardians +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Yankees -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-175) | Yankees -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -101 | U: -120)
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Guardians at Yankees picks and predictions
Prediction
Yankees 5, Guardians 1
Moneyline
The YANKEES (-155) picked up the Game 4 victory in Cleveland to level the series at 2-2, and now get the Guardians in front of a raucous home crowd hungry to see the high-octane Yankees advance.
The Guardians have done a good job to win 2 games in this series and push the Yankees to the brink. Unfortunately for the young club, New York will get it done here as the pitching matchup is squarely in its favor.
Run line/Against the spread
YANKEES -1.5 (+135) is worth a roll of the dice. Civale was very giving this season, especially on the road, and he could be a little rusty, too, as this will be his first outing of the preseason. Look for New York to jump all over him early and often.
Over/Under
UNDER 7.5 (-120) is a good play. While I expect the Yankees to do some early damage against Civale, the Cleveland bullpen has been lights out. The Guardians bullpen has allowed just 2 ER in 25 2/3 IP of this series for a 0.70 ERA.
Expect a similar formula to Game 1, where New York scored early, and then didn’t do much after building a lead.
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