The good news is, my bold strategy of betting on Jacoby Brissett paid off in Week 4. The bad news is, my bold strategy of betting against Geno Smith did not.
Same with betting up the Buffalo Bills’ passing game and just about everything in Sunday’s Cowboys-Commanders game. The end result was the regression I’d feared; a 2-5 week that put a dent in my theoretical bankroll.
Fortunately, those losses only dropped me to 19-11 on the year. That’s not bad! It can still get much worse, however, so it looks like my freewheeling run through the props list is about to get a little more restrained. The educated guess lines of the first three weeks of the season have tightened up considerably. Here’s what I like in Week 5:
- Teddy Bridgewater Over 239.5 yards. Bridgewater threw for 193 in two-plus quarters, and while 30 of those came in garbage time that would still be enough to hit this over. He’s thrown for 240-plus in 16 of the last 27 games he’s started and finished and had Tyreek Hill and DeVonta Smith in zero of those games. The Jets have only given up 240-plus through the air once this season, but that was against a Bengals offense with similar run-after-catch chops as the Dolphins. Pair it with longest completion OVER 34.5 yards because Teddy’s got horses in his stable.
- Saquon Barkley OVER 77.5 rushing yards. Daniel Jones’ balky ankle will cut down on his designed bootlegs, leaving Barkley some extra work in the ground game. Green Bay may stack the box against him, but it’s reasonable to question how effective that will be from a defense that’s allowed five yards per carry this fall and currently ranks 27th in rushing defense efficiency. I expect the Packers to trust their cornerbacks on an island, bring eight men near the line of scrimmage … and still give up some big gains as the league’s total yardage leader gets 20-plus handoffs.
- James Robinson OVER 59.5 rushing yards. I said I would ride Robinson’s overs until the wheels fell off. They did last week in Philadelphia, where he only had eight carries and gained just 29 yards against the league’s 23rd-ranked rush defense. But this week he’s got the 29th-ranked rush defense and a game his Jaguars will probably be leading throughout the second half. 60 yards isn’t asking too much. We’re back on Robinson, at least for one more Sunday.
- Breece Hall OVER 61.5 total yards. Another train we’re riding until it breaks down. The rookie played a career-best 66 percent of the Jets snaps in Week 4 and had 23 carries + targets. The Dolphins have a top five run defense so I don’t love his rushing over. But they also have a potent secondary Zach Wilson may want to avoid and take easy checkdowns. That’s where Hall can thrive in the passing game (27 targets in four games).
- Cam Akers OVER 39.5 rushing yards. Akers has the capacity to get pulled after three carries and make me look very stupid. After earning his first start of the season in Week 4, he promptly gave the Rams 13 yards on eight carries. Not great!But the Cowboys’ run defense allows five yards per carry — just like the Packers — and has let six different running backs gain at least 40 yards in four games, including all three of Washington’s primary tailbacks last Sunday. Dallas’ run defense is much weaker than its pass defense, and Sean McVay will try to exploit that. Hopefully with Akers, but who the hell knows?
- Randall Cobb OVER 22.5 receiving yards. It’s a low total for a player who is still in Aaron Rodgers’ circle of trust; Cobb had five targets last week (one was erased by a pass interference penalty) on only 25 snaps. 40 percent of them came 20-plus yards downfield, suggesting one catch could cash this bet.
- Corey Davis OVER 35.5 receiving yards. Davis had six targets last week. Five of them came as Zach Wilson furiously rallied his Jets back from a 10-point second half deficit. If the young quarterback is in trouble, he’s liable to turn to his veteran leader at wideout. It seems likely he’ll be in trouble against the Dolphins in Week 5.
- D.K. Metcalf OVER 60.5 receiving yards. Metcalf has 22 targets in his last two games as Geno Smith has emerged as one of the league’s most efficient quarterbacks. Marshon Lattimore and the Saints secondary just let Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen combine for 18 catches on 22 passes and 219 yards. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett — whose total sits at 63.5 — can match that.
Last week: 2-5 (.286)
Season to date: 19-11 (.633)