The Minnesota Vikings are 3-1. If the NFL season ended today, they would win the NFC North and host at least one playoff game. In fact, given how much effort the Green Bay Packers needed to beat the New England Patriots’ third-string quarterback at home, it’s not hard to argue this team *will* win the NFC North.
But it’s fair to wonder if Minnesota is capable of being more than the best of a bad situation. The Vikings’ victories this season have come over a disheveled Packers squad and a pair of one-win organizations. The quarterbacks they’ve beaten are Aaron Rodgers (good!), Jared Goff (ehhhh…) and Andy Dalton (oh boy). The defense gives up a ton of yards. The offense is a collaboration of players who are capable of greatness but rarely great at the same time.
So, in summation, the Vikings under new head coach Kevin O’Connell look a whole lot like the final two seasons of the Vikings under the since-fired Mike Zimmer.
This is a problem that may escape the gravity of a head coach. Since installing Kirk Cousins at quarterback Minnesota has vacillated between “mediocre” and “good enough.” In each of the last four years the team won between seven and 10 games. It had two winning seasons and two losing seasons. It won a playoff game. It lost a playoff game.
After finishing 2020 and 2021 ranked 27th and 30th in yards allowed, respectively, Minnesota came into Week 4 ranked 31st. In terms of advanced stats, the Vikings’ 0.049 expected points allowed per play ranks 23rd — sandwiched between 1-3 New England and 0-3-1 Houston.
That places the burden of a playoff run onto Cousins’ offense. Cousins is a competent quarterback who sometimes rises to the occasion and sometimes runs screaming in the opposite direction. He is a warrior at 1 p.m. ET kickoffs — he has a 46-31-2 record in those games — and much less so later on (16-35 at 4 p.m. or later).
That made it slightly less surprising to see him step up and lead Minnesota to victory with a perfect pitch and catch deep ball to Justin Jefferson late in the AM game from London to kick off Week 4:
Cousins is surrounded by talent, but rarely gets to see Jefferson, Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook all find their rhythm on the same day. The Vikings haven’t had a 100-yard rusher and a 100-yard receiver in the same game since Week 5 of 2021. That’s not a perfect measurement of achievement, but it does illustrate how this team perpetually looks like a fantasy football hornet’s nest but has only cracked the top 10 in scoring offense once since 2010.
Cousins’ distaste for deep balls plays a part there. The rainbow to Jefferson above was just his third completion 20-plus yards downfield in only eight tries. 25 other starting quarterbacks have thrown more deep balls than that — and they don’t have a 23-year-old All-Pro waiting to annihilate defensive backs and griddy through the back of the end zone.
Instead, O’Connell’s offense opts to play it safe against the limitations of its offensive line. Cousins has been pressured on 28 percent of his dropbacks — eighth-worst in the league — but only sacked seven times. Roughly one in four of his passing attempts have come off play-action, which helps buy time in the pocket but hasn’t translated to downfield passing success. Opportunities exist downfield, but opposing defenses are leaving two high safeties on the field for passing downs, letting their pass rush do the work, and cleaning up from there.
Here’s an example; Cousins has an open Jefferson (in the slot) breaking to the sideline if he can drop the ball over a linebacker’s head. But he’s a split second late and a four-man rush gets to him instead. This turns third-and-long inside Saints territory into a Minnesota punt.
That’s the Kirk Cousins experience. There’s good and bad and the bad somehow stands out more vividly. None of this feels especially new or encouraging, even with a new coaching staff.
That’s why it’s hard to get terribly excited about a 3-1 start and a clear path to the postseason. The Vikings are winning but still feel a lot like the 2020 and 2021 versions that slowly drained the optimism out of the state of Minnesota.
Fortunately for them, there’s still time to make adjustments and generate the kind of affirming wins that would prove this isn’t just an extension of the Mike Zimmer show. After all, they did beat the crap out of the Packers in Week 1. That’s not nothing — even if Cousins followed it up with a primetime egg against the Eagles.
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