Florida’s Billy Napier called some gutsy plays during Saturday’s loss to Tennessee, but a lot more thought went into those decisions than some may have expected.
It started on the very first drive of the game when Florida went for it twice on fourth down. Napier didn’t blink at fourth-and-1 on his own 39-yard-line, and neither did Anthony Richardson as he converted the first of five fourth-down attempts. Richardson came up short on the second attempt of the drive, turning the ball over on Tennessee’s 20-yard line, but Florida finished the night 5-for-6 on fourth down and the aggressiveness helped keep the game close.
“Your job as a coach is to come up with a strategy to put your team in a position to win,” Napier said during his Monday media availability. “We knew going into it, part of the way you win that game is you got to control possession of the ball. You’ve got to keep their offense off the field. The play count on their end, on offense, can get high in a hurry, and that affects your defense.
“One of the ways to combat that is to stay on the field on offense, and you know going in, based on history, that you’re going to have to score. So, there’s a little bit of a more aggressive approach.”
Even though going for it on fourth down so often may seem like a bad idea, it’s hard to argue with the results. The same can’t be said for Napier’s approach late in the game, though. Perhaps the biggest complaint against the coaching staff following the loss was that Florida went for two early, which took away the chance for a game-tying field goal at the end of regulation.
The thing is, that argument only makes sense in hindsight. The modern game is decided early, and Napier made it clear that he was playing to win.
“There are two avenues when you really dig into the numbers about the approach there,” he said. “First of all, you start talking about playing for a tie. When you’re on the road, there’s a slight advantage for the home team in overtime, and there’s certainly a bigger advantage when you’re a two-score favorite. I think it’s about around 60-63% advantage if you’re the home team playing overtime and you’re a two-score favorite. So, that goes into your decision-making, and really all you’re trying to do is declare the path earlier in the game.
“So, you go for two there, and if you get it, you’re at nine. Okay, now you’re in a position to win the game with an extra point, whereas if you don’t get it now, you’re still two scores down with an additional opportunity to go for two. So, if you kick it, ultimately, the numbers are going to tell you to go for two anyways at the end of the game.”
It’s perfectly reasonable for Napier to play for the win in this one, too. Tennessee’s offense wasn’t slowing down, and Florida’s defense was once again underperforming. Pushing the game into overtime likely doesn’t end with a win, and Florida ended up with a shot at a Hail Mary play to win it all, anyway.
Napier coaches to win, plain and simple. “Scared money don’t money,” is the phrase he’s known by for a reason, and he’ll continue to make these calls as the team gets more comfortable with him. Remember, most of these guys had Dan Mullen as a coach for the last few years, and Napier’s philosophy is significantly different. Change takes time, and the early returns are actually more encouraging than many believe.
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