Michigan football is expected to take a step back in 2022, albeit not a big one.
The USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll has the Wolverines at No. 6 in the preseason rankings, while the AP Top 25 has Michigan at No. 8. But the expectation is that the offense will carry the team, while the defense — having lost Aidan Hutchinson, Dax Hill, and David Ojabo — will regress mightily. As Lee Corso likes to say, ‘Not so fast!’
The 2021 defense is spoken of as one of the all-time great Michigan defenses, at least in the eyes of the media. However, when it comes to overall total defense ranking, as well as by yards per play, the 2021 squad was the second-worst in the Jim Harbaugh era. The Wolverines were No. 14 in yards per play last year, compared to No. 10 in 2019, eighth in 2018, sixth in 2017, second in 2016, and fifth in 2015.
With the 2020 season being an outlier, as the maize and blue had an atrocious defensive unit that led to Don Brown’s firing, the norm is actually that the defense will be one of the top units in the country. Yet, we hear one or two narratives when it comes to this upcoming season: Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo are irreplaceable, and Michigan is inexperienced on defense having lost seven starters on that side of the ball.
Losing Hutchinson and Ojabo
Comparing previous years’ production
Let’s address the first point on Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo. Yes, the duo had the best two individual efforts when it came to quarterback pressure (sacks and tackles for loss) in program history. However, let’s look at overall team production by year in the Jim Harbaugh era.
| Year | Sacks | TFL |
| 2021 | 34 | 71 |
| 2020* | 9 | 25 |
| 2019 | 36 | 78 |
| 2018 | 34 | 88 |
| 2017 | 42 | 114 |
| 2016 | 46 | 120 |
| 2015 | 32 | 88 |
*Six-game season
So, as you can see, with 2020 removed as it was just a six-game season compared to all the others which had at least 13 games (and it also was an abysmal year), 2021 is tied for the second-lowest in terms of sacks and is the lowest production when it comes to tackles for loss.
But, how could that be, you might ask, given that Hutchinson set the single-season sack record while Ojabo tied the old record? Behind the duo, the player with the next-highest total had just 2.5 sacks on the season (Taylor Upshaw). In all of the previous years, there was much more parity across the defensive roster when it came to getting to the quarterback.
The expectation this year under defensive coordinator Jesse Minter is that the defense won’t rely solely on getting pressure from the edge positions. That may seem daunting considering last year’s production, but it’s more in line with previous seasons.
When you look at those numbers, Michigan had fewer sacks, even though it had played one more game by virtue of playing in the Big Ten Championship. If the Wolverines can get 3-5 sacks from five-to-eight players, it will be more in-line with what we’ve seen in recent years. It was last year that was the departure.
Who will step up?
This delves a little bit into the next section, but one thing that people aren’t considering is that edge rusher has been Michigan’s most reliably productive position group since Jim Harbaugh arrived in 2015. Every single starting edge rusher to this point has been, at worst, a third-round draft pick. Even Michael Danna, who came in via transfer in 2019 and played as a reserve, managed to get picked in the fifth round.
Let’s look at who the Wolverines have had starting in those positions:
| Years | Player | NFL draft round |
| 2015-16 | Taco Charlton | 1st |
| 2015-16 | Chris Wormley | 3rd |
| 2017-18 | Rashan Gary | 1st |
| 2017-18 | Chase Winovich | 3rd |
| 2018-19 | Josh Uche | 2nd |
| 2019-20 | Kwity Paye | 1st |
| 2019-21 | Aidan Hutchinson | 1st |
| 2021 | David Ojabo | 2nd |
That is an incredible track record of having your starting players (or in Josh Uche’s case, a key reserve) going in the top end of the NFL draft. But, of course, the question is who will become those pass rushers this season?
Mike Morris appears to have locked one side down, while Taylor Upshaw is expected to be the other. There are others who can make a case, such as Jaylen Harrell, Braiden McGregor, or by season’s end, incoming transfer Eyabi Anoma. But to have a Michigan edge not go in the top end of the draft once their college career is done would be an outlier, which indicates the chances are good that someone will step up.
Remember: nobody expected David Ojabo to be one of the best edge rushers in Michigan history in the preseason. Additionally, very few anticipated Aidan Hutchinson would cement himself as the best at this time last year. Yes, he was expected to be good, but he was not included in most first-round mock drafts in the preseason.
So-called defensive inexperience
Michigan lost the following starters from last year’s team on the defensive side of the ball: edge Aidan Hutchinson, safety Dax Hill, edge David Ojabo, linebacker Josh Ross, S Brad Hawkins, cornerback Vincent Gray and defensive tackle Christopher Hinton. That narrative leads people to believe the Wolverines return just four starters on defense. That’s actually not the case.
The following players started games for Michigan on defense in 2021 or played significant, meaningful minutes (not just coming in as an occasional specialist): DT Mazi Smith, edge Taylor Upshaw, LB Junior Colson, LB Nikhai Hill-Green, S Rod Moore, S RJ Moten, LB Michael Barrett, CB Gemon Green, CB DJ Turner and DT Kris Jenkins Jr. That’s 10 of 11!
What’s more, others such as Jaylen Harrell and Mike Morris have played extensively, meaning you’re essentially returning a very experienced unit. With the exceptions of safety Makari Paige (who has played, albeit sparingly) or freshman cornerback Will Johnson, nearly every single player pegged to be a factor in 2022 has seen significant playing time with meaningful minutes in meaningful games.
That parallels a previous unit that had pretty decent success: the 2017 defense.
In 2016, as often as he could, Jim Harbaugh inserted a lot of his freshmen into games in garbage time to get them experience. Some players, such as Rashan Gary and Devin Bush, transcended playing simply when the score had gotten out of hand. Others, like cornerbacks David Long and Lavert Hill, really didn’t get out onto the field much unless the game was in hand. Entering 2017, there was a lot of consternation about the Wolverines replacing 10 of 11 starters — LB Mike McCray being the lone returnee. From the jump, the new-look unit proved pundits wrong, and that unit finished with the No. 3 defense in the country in yards per game allowed.
Really the bigger questions surround the players we haven’t seen much but who will play a role in the rotation. DT Rayshaun Benny, LB Joey Velazquez, S Makari Paige, CB Mike Sainristil (who is playing both receiver and corner for the first time at the college level) and edge Braiden McGregor — how do these players fare when the aforementioned are on the bench? In order for the Wolverines to succeed, the bench will need to be deep, and they’ll need at least a little production from a lot of players.
New defensive coordinator
The last narrative suggests that Michigan could be in trouble after losing Mike Macdonald to the Baltimore Ravens. Rival fans like to point out that his replacement, Jesse Minter, did not post a very good defense a year ago at Vanderbilt. This somewhat ignores two things: Vanderbilt is at a severe talent disadvantage in the SEC and is rebuilding on top of that under new head coach Clark Lea; Minter also hails from the Baltimore Ravens system where he oversaw defensive backs.
In fact, unlike Macdonald, Minter has defensive coordinator experience, at Vandy, Georgia State, and Indiana State. He only coached defensive backs with the Ravens for one season (2020) and he oversaw the sixth-best pass defense in the NFL. He was tied for fifth in touchdowns allowed, tied for third in yards per attempt allowed, with the only knocks being a middling unit in terms of turnovers and allowing first downs. Coming to Ann Arbor, Minter is keeping the same scheme, though it will assuredly have difference and marked nuances that are a departure from what we saw from Macdonald — he is a different coach after all! Much like Macdonald’s unit, you can expect something of a bend-but-don’t-break defense that won’t completely shut teams down, but will keep them out of the end zone, ultimately.
What’s more, there are two returning position coaches in Steve Clinkscale and George Helow, while new defensive line coach Mike Elston has a stellar track record of development at the defensive line position.
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Does any of this ensure that Michigan football will have a top 10 unit? Of course not. Certainly, it could take a step back as many suggest. But those who do suggest it aren’t looking broadly at what the Wolverines present in terms of personnel and coaching acumen.
The coaches and players suggest this is year two of the defense, and while there isn’t a lot of established high-level production on par with Hutchinson, Ojabo, or Hill, there are a lot of playmakers who have seen meaningful minutes in key situations who have been waiting in the wings for their time to shine.
Once upon a time, the Michigan defense was thought of as having a ‘next man up’ type of rotation. It’s unclear when and why the perception of that changed.
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