I learned a long time ago that talent generally trumps everything else in boxing – size, strength, experience, all of it.
That’s why I believe heavyweight titleholder Oleksandr Usyk will defeat Anthony Joshua a second time on Saturday in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia (DAZN). Usyk is the better boxer.
He proved that in their first fight, last September, when he outclassed the then-champion to win a clear decision and three of the four major belts. I scored it 116-112 for Usyk, eight rounds to four.
I think most observers will agree that Joshua can’t outbox Usyk.
Thus, Joshua is expected to make an obvious adjustment under new trainer Robert Garcia: use his size, strength and punching power advantages against a naturally smaller man more than he did in the first fight.
That could help. If he can impose his will on Usyk – perhaps in a similar manner to Tyson Fury in his second fight with Deontay Wilder – he has a chance to turn the tables on him and regain both his belts and the respect he has lost.
And we can’t dismiss Joshua’s ability to hurt an opponent: He can knockout anyone with the right punch, including Usyk.
The problem for him is that Usyk is far more talented than Wilder. There’s no reason to believe he won’t be able to adjust to Joshua’s adjustments, as his instincts and ring acumen seem to be off the charts.
And an aggressive Joshua could run into another problem, literally. The more assertive he is the more he opens himself up to taking a big shot himself. Usyk, a former cruiserweight champion, doesn’t have elite power but he can hurt Joshua if he walks into a big shot.
I don’t believe Usyk will knock out Joshua but it’s a possibility if Joshua takes risks.
Finally, I’m among those who have questioned Joshua’s fighting spirit, his commitment to the sport, since the moment Andy Ruiz Jr. first hurt him in the third round of their first fight, which Ruiz won by a seventh-round stoppage.
Joshua won the rematch with a grossly overweight Ruiz by a unanimous decision but fought tentatively. Of course, he deserves credit because the objective is to win. However, his tactics reenforced the perception that he’s skittish.
I still wonder what would happen if he finds himself in trouble, as he did in the first fight with Ruiz. In that case, he continued to fight for several rounds but, evidently convinced he couldn’t win, he ultimately quit.
That was the worst moment of his career, one that fans won’t forget.
And, to me, Joshua’s performance against Usyk in the first fight did nothing to alleviate the doubts about the former champion. He and Usyk were even on the scorecards through eight rounds but the latter won the final four to win going away, an indication that Usyk was more determined than Joshua.
As a knowledegable observer put it to me, “It just looked like Usyk had more dog in him down the stretch.”
I won’t believe in Joshua again until I see him become a dog. I want to see him say with his actions in the ring, “Dammit, I’m the rightful heavyweight champion and I’m going to take what’s mine.”
If Joshua fights with that type of attitude and uses his advantages in a clever manner, I give him a chance to beat Usyk on Saturday and set up a monster showdown with Fury. If he doesn’t, he’ll probably suffer the same as the first fight.
I believe Usyk will have his hand raised again.
[lawrence-related id=32032,32024,32018,32014,24077]
[vertical-gallery id=24080]