The Milwaukee Brewers (61-51) are in Busch Stadium Sunday for their 3-game series finale with the St. Louis Cardinals (62-51). First pitch is scheduled for 2:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
This is the rubber match of the set. St. Louis won Friday’s series opener 3-1 while Milwaukee bounced back with a 3-2 extra-inning victory Saturday.
Season series: Tied 7-7
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Brewers at Cardinals projected starters
LHP Aaron Ashby vs. RHP Miles Mikolas
Ashby is 2-10 with a 4.32 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 in 85 1/3 IP over 15 starts and 6 relief appearances.
- Last start: Lost 7-5 Saturday at home vs. the Cincinnati Reds with 4 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 3 H, 1 HR, 5 BB and 5 K
- 2022 vs. the Cardinals: 1 start, a no-decision in Milwaukee’s 6-5 home win April 17 with 4 IP, 3 R, 2 H, 1 HR, 4 BB and 4 K
Mikolas is 8-9 with a 3.50 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 in 141 1/3 IP across 23 starts.
- Last start: Lost 16-5 Tuesday at the Colorado Rockies with 2 2/3 IP, 10 ER, 14 H, 1 HR, 0 BB and 2 K.
- 2022 vs. the Brewers: 1-2 with a 4.34 ERA (18 2/3 IP, 9 ER), 16 H, 3 HR, 4 BB and 16 K in 3 starts.
Brewers at Cardinals odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:49 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Brewers +122 (bet $100 to win $122) | Cardinals -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers +1.5 (-175) | Cardinals -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
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Brewers at Cardinals picks and predictions
Prediction
Cardinals 6, Brewers 3
Money line
LEAN CARDINALS (-150) only because St. Louis’s RL is a better look. But,Mikolas pitches much better at home and this is an extremely profitable spot for St. Louis.
Mikolas is 4-2 straight up in 11 home starts with a 2.48 ERA (4.59 road ERA), 0.88 WHIP (1.31 road WHIP) and 5.18 K/BB rate (3.19 road K/BB rate).
Also, St. Louis is 8-2 SU as -140 favorites or greater vs. left-handed starters with a plus-27.4% return on investment (ROI) and an average final margin of 5.50-3.50.
However, St. Louis’s RL ROI is better than the SU ROI hence the LEAN CARDINALS (-150). I’d entertain parlaying St. Louis’s ML with another similarly priced favorite for a plus-money payout.
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Run line/Against the spread
BET CARDINALS -1.5 (+140) based on the previous analysis and St. Louis is 7-3 RL with a plus-51.7% ROI as -140 favorites or greater vs. lefties and 9-5 RL vs. the Brewers +1.5 (-175) this season.
Over/Under
PASS.
Cardinals-Brewers is 5-8-1 O/U in 2022 and play more to the Under when both starters are on the bump (17-20 O/U).
But, St. Louis’s lineup rakes left-handed pitching and Milwaukee’s is top-10 in wRC+, wOBA and ISO vs. right-handed pitching, per FanGraphs.
PASS.
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