In a light heavyweight bout on the main card, Magomed Ankalaev and Anthony Smith meet Saturday at UFC 277 at American Airlines Arena in Dallas. Below, we analyze the UFC 277 Ankalaev vs. Smith odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The card can be viewed on ESPN+ with the early prelims starting at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+, the prelims starting at 8 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN/ESPN+, followed by the main card at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View.
Ankalaev lost his UFC debut against Paul Craig in a 3rd-round submission back in March 2018. He has won 8 straight fights since, including 4 KO/TKO wins and 4 unanimous-decision victories.
The 30-year-old Ankalaev has recorded 3 straight UD wins, including a victory over Thiago Santos in mid-March. He stands an inch shorter than his counterpart while he has a 1-inch reach disadvantage, too. However, he holds a 3.49-to-3.03 significant strikes landed per minute advantage and is much more accurate with those strikes than Smith at 63.52% to just 50.93%.
The Russian fighter has also wowed the judges with his takedown ability, going for a 1.01 takedown average to just 0.46 for Smith. However, the latter has a 0.77 submission average, while Ankalaev has never won via that method.
Smith has recorded 3 consecutive finishes, including a submission last time out over Ryan Spann in September. He’s had 3 consecutive Round 1 victories, 2 via submission and 1 via TKO.
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UFC 277 Ankalaev vs. Smith odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:51 p.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Ankalaev -650 (bet $650 to win $100) | Smith +420 (bet $100 to win $420)
- Total rounds: Over 2.5 (-175) | Under 2.5 (+125)
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes (-140) | No (+102)
[tipico]
UFC 277 Ankalaev vs. Smith picks and predictions
Records: Ankalaev (17-1-0) | Smith (36-16-0)
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
Ankalaev (-650) is a heavy favorite in the first fight of the main card. Smith has done some amazing things lately, including a pair of submission wins and a TKO via doctor’s stoppage against Jimmy Crute across his last 3 fights. As such, it’s tempting to play Smith as the heavy underdog.
However, the Russian fighter is the play, but you have to get specific, as playing him straight up costs you over 6 times your potential return. Instead, focus on the method of victory, taking ANKALAEV BY TKO/KO (+125). He has never won via submission, so there is no reason to consider that method. The worry is that his last 3 fights have gone the distance.
Over/Under (O/U)
NO (+102): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE is a strong play at plus-money, as if you like Ankalaev to get the finish, why not take advantage of this prop, too?
Consider UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (+125), too. Smith’s last 3 fights have each failed to make it past Round 1, and the concern is about Ankalaev since he has had the judges decide his fate in the past 3 outings.
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