The Milwaukee Brewers (55-44) and Boston Red Sox (50-50) clash in a 3-game interleague series which opens Friday at 7:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: First meeting of teams since 2017. Red Sox lead series 8-7 since 2003.
The Brewers swept a 2-game set from the Minnesota Twins this week and have won 5 of their last 6. This surge comes after Milwaukee had struggled over the latter stages of the 1st half. The Brewers went into the All-Star break having lost 8 of 11.
On July 10, the Red Sox were 8 games over-.500 (47-39) and in 2nd place in the AL East. Since that date, they are 3-11 with a Boeing 7.45 ERA.
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Brewers at Red Sox projected starters
RHP Brandon Woodruff vs. RHP Brayan Bello
Woodruff (8-3, 3.73 ERA) is making his 15th start of the 2022 season. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 11.5 K/9 in 72 1/3 IP.
- Owns a 3.30 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 532 1/3 career IP.
- Has home/road splits tilting hard toward turns in Milwaukee: Has a 5.26 ERA, 1.49 WHIP on the road.
- Has a 2.33 ERA in his last 7 starts.
Bello (0-2, 10.50 ERA) is tabbed for his 4th start. He has a 2.50 WHIP, 6.0 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 in 12 IP.
- The 23-year-old rookie made his Major League debut July 6.
- Walks have been a problem. So too have been balls in play: has coughed up a .478 batting average on such events. Has done well to limit barrels (2.2%) and hard contact (28.3%).
Brewers at Red Sox odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:47 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Brewers -170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Red Sox +135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers -1.5 (-103) | Red Sox +1.5 (-117)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +110 | U: -135)
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Brewers at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Brewers 5, Red Sox 4
Money line
Boston has played a much tougher schedule of late. Its talent would warrant a plus-money underdog play at +140 or better. PASS otherwise.
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Run line/Against the spread
Woodruff’s recent numbers have been buoyed by a 100% home-run avoidance rate. On a warm, wind-out-to-center night at Fenway, and off back-to-back starts with 100-plus pitches, look for some regression.
Both clubs have played a lot of 1-run games.
BACK THE RED SOX +1.5 (-117).
Over/Under
Both bullpens have better underlying numbers than surface numbers. The same goes for both starters.
Boston struggles against right-handed pitching and is off its game to begin with. There is a lean in principle on the Under 9.5 (-135). But rarely is a 25-cent Under going to provide enough value. HOLD OUT FOR A BETTER PRICE.
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