The Seattle Mariners (54-45) head to Minute Maid Park Thursday to start a 4-game series with the Houston Astros (64-35) in the final series of the year between the AL West rivals. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mariners vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Houston leads 9-6.
The Mariners rode a 14-game winning streak into the All-Star break before getting swept in a 3-game set by the Astros then bouncing back to sweep the Texas Rangers in a 3-game series Monday-Wednesday.
The Astros won their 1st 5 games after the All-Star break (2 vs. the New York Yankees and 3 vs. the Mariners) before being swept in a 3-game set at the Oakland Athletics this week.
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Mariners at Astros projected starters
RHP Logan Gilbert vs. RHP Jose Urquidy
Gilbert is 10-4 with a 2.77 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 117 IP over 20 starts.
- Last start: Lost 3-1 at home vs. the Astros Saturday with 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 8 K.
- 2022 vs. the Astros: 2-1 with a 2.37 ERA (19 IP, 5 ER), 16 H, 0 HR, 4 BB and 16 K in 3 starts.
Urquidy is 9-4 with a 3.93 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 in 100 2/3 IP across 18 starts.
- Last start: Won 5-2 Friday at the Mariners with 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 3 K.
- 2022 vs. the Mariners: 1-3 with a 7.58 ERA (19 IP, 16 ER), 31 H, 5 HR, 9 BB and 12 K in 4 starts.
Mariners at Astros odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:12 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Mariners +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Astros -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners +1.5 (-170) | Astros -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Mariners at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Mariners 5, Astros 3
Money line
GIMME the MARINERS (+120) at this price point because Gilbert has far better basic and advanced pitching numbers vs. the Astros (-145) than Urquidy against Seattle.
Gilbert has a 24.1% K-rate in 108 plate appearances (PA) vs. active Astros batters with a .265/.311/.407 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, per Statcast.
On the other hand, Urquidy has a 12.2% K-rate in 123 PA vs. current Mariners hitters with a .317/.420/.579 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line.
Finally, the Mariners are taking “sharp action” and have been steamed from a +139 underdog on the opener down to the current number, according to Pregame.com.
BET the MARINERS (+120).
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
I’d love some insurance for our Seattle ML wager but the Mariners +1.5 (-170) is out of my price range even though they are 23-13 RL as road underdogs.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 8.5 (-112).
These teams have a combined 36-60-1 O/U in division games, Houston is 17-25-2 O/U at home and Mariners-Astros has gone Under the total in 9 of their 15 meetings this year with an average total of 7.17.
My hesitation with the UNDER 8.5 (-112) is the Over has cashed in 9 of the last 12 Mariners-Astros meetings in Houston have gone Under the total.
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