The 4th 2022 3M Open tees off Thursday, July 21 at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota. TPC Twin Cities is a par 71 that plays at 7,431 yards and the winner brings home $1.35 million out of the $7.5 million prize pool.
Below, we tab the best value prop bets on a trio of golfers among the 2022 3M Open odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.
The 3M Open 2021 champion Cameron Champ (No. 233 in Golfweek/Sagarin rankings) returns to defend his title against one of the softest fields for any event on the PGA Tour this season.
Most of the world’s best golfers are taking an off week on the heels of last week’s 150th Open Championship. But, notables in the 156-golfer field include 2021 Masters Champion Hideki Matsuyama (No. 8), Sung-Jae Im (No. 16) and Tony Finau (No. 33).
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2022 3M Open best bets
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 2:01 p.m. ET.
Davis Riley
Riley is one of several impressive rookies this year on the PGA Tour, and that’s saying something. He has 6 top-20 finishes in his last 10 events including 4 top-10s and a runner-up finish at the Valspar Championship after losing in a playoff to Sam Burns.
On top of that, Riley is 2nd in my custom stat model and 4th in my mixed model provided by FantasyNational.com. Riley is 1st in Birdies-or-Better Gained (BoB), 5th in Strokes Gained (SG): Par 4, 8th in SG: Off-the-tee (OTT) and 9th in SG: Ball-striking over his last 36 rounds.
Lastly, Riley is 2nd in SG: Total over his last 24 rounds, 10th in SG for both the comp courses used and courses longer than 7,400 yards, according to FantasyNational.com.
- $12.50 for winner (+2000) to earn a $500 profit
- $12.50 for top-5 finish (+550) to earn a $68.75 profit
- $25 for top-10 finish (+260) to earn a $65 profit
- $100 for top-20 finish (+125) to earn a $125 profit
Brendan Steele
I’m shopping for OTT for the 3M Open since the 2021 (Champ) and 2019 (former PGA golfer Matthew Wolf) winners are currently 1st and 2nd in driving distance on the PGA Tour. Steele is 1st in SG: OTT in this field and 2nd in Good Drives Gained, per FantasyNational.com.
Steele is playing well coming into the 3M Open, ranking 5th in SG: Total over his last 24 rounds, per FantasyNational.com. This includes impressive finishes at tough courses in competitive fields such as the Memorial (10th), 2022 PGA Championship (9th) and THE PLAYERS Championship (13th)
Furthermore, Steele’s game fits TPC Twin Cities nicely. Steele is 9th in my mixed model, which includes the 7th-best SG: Par 4. In fact, Steele finished 53rd in the 2019 3M Open because he dropped 6.3 strokes on the greens but picked up 8.2 strokes T2G, per FantasyNational.com.
If Steele can just have a decent putting week at TPC Twin Cities, he’ll be a threat to win.
- $12.50 for winner (+3000) to earn a $375 profit
- $12.50 for top-5 finish (+700) to earn a $87.50 profit
- $25 for top-10 finish (+350) to earn a $87.50 profit
- $100 for top-20 finish (+125) to earn a $125 profit
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Emiliano Grillo
Grillo finished 3rd at the 2020 3M Open and was 2nd in the John Deere Classic earlier this month. The John Deere Classic is also played on an easy-TPC course and has the same “player quality measures” average (minus-0.8) as the 3M Open, according to DataGolf.com.
Furthermore, Grillo has played well at the PGA events that have lower “player quality measure” averages than the 3M Open such as the Puerto Rico Open, Corales Puntacana Championship and the Barbasol Championship.
He finished 11th (2021, 3rd (2020) and 2nd (2015) in 3 of his 5 Puerto Rico Open appearances, 6th at the 2021 Puntacana and 10th at his only Barbasol Championship played in 2015.
Finally, Grillo is 7th in both SG: OTT and SG: T2G at courses longer than 7,400 yards and 1st in Proximity: 200-plus. There are more approach shots longer than 200 yards at this course than at your average PGA event because of all the water hazards forcing golfers to lay up.
- $12.50 for winner (+5000) to earn a $625 profit
- $12.50 for top-5 finish (+1300) to earn a $162.25 profit
- $25 for top-10 finish (+550) to earn a $137.50 profit
- $100 for top-20 finish (+240) to earn a $240 profit
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Golfweek:
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