The Chicago White Sox (43-45) head to Target Field Thursday to start a 4-game series with the Minnesota Twins (49-41) at 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the White Sox vs. Twins nickname odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Both teams are 5-5 overall in the last 10 games, but Minnesota sits 5 games ahead of Chicago atop the AL Central.
The Twins beat the White Sox 2-1 in a 3-game set last week and Minnesota leads the season series 5-1 with a plus-18 run differential.
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White Sox at Twins projected starters
RHP Johnny Cueto vs. RHP Sonny Gray
Cueto is 3-4 with a 2.91 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 in 68 IP over 10 starts and 1 relief appearance.
- Last start: Won 8-0 Saturday at home vs. the Detroit Tigers with 8 scoreless IP, 5 H, 0 BB and 5 K.
- 2022 vs. the Twins: One start, a no-decision in Chicago’s 6-3 home loss July 4 with 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 HR, 5 BB and 3 K.
Gray is 4-2 with a 3.03 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 59 1/3 IP across 12 starts.
- Last start: Lost 6-5 Friday at the Texas Rangers with 4 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 0 K.
- 2021 vs. the White Sox: 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA (11 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 7 H, 1 HR, 4 BB and 14 K in 2 starts.
White Sox at Twins odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:46 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): White Sox +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Twins -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): White Sox +1.5 (-150) | Twins -1.5 (+122)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
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White Sox at Twins picks and predictions
Prediction
Twins 7, White Sox 3
Money line
RISK 1 unit on the TWINS (-170) because they’ve been hit by heavy sharp action, Minnesota’s bats are more productive against right-handed pitching than Chicago’s and Gray’s advanced stats vs. the White Sox (+135) are much better than Cueto’s vs. the Twins.
Minnesota’s ML has been steamed from -149 up to the current number per Pregame.com and that type of line movement in a division game is jarring.
Also, the Twins’ lineup outperforms the White Sox vs. right-handed pitching in several advanced hitting stats such as wRC+ (118-88), wOBA (.331-.290), ISO (.178-.112), BB/K rate (0.39-0.29) and hard-hit rate (34.8-27.0%), per FanGraphs.
Finally, Gray has a 34.7% K-rate in 75 plate appearances (PA) vs. Chicago’s lineup with a .197 batting average, per Statcast. Whereas Cueto has an 18.4% K-rate with a .407 expected wOBA and .552 expected slugging percentage.
If your standard unit is $100 then “FLAT-BET” that on the TWINS (-170) to earn a $58.82 profit.
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS with a “lean” toward the Twins -1.5 (+122) because 4 of their 5 wins vs. the White Sox +1.5 (-150) have been by at least 2 runs.
However, Minnesota’s RL isn’t a big enough payout considering it is 14-19 RL as home favorites while Chicago is 16-9 RL as road underdogs.
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 8.5 (-112) because 4 of the 5 White Sox-Twins matchups have gone Over Thursday’s total.
But Minnesota is just 13-19-1 O/U as home favorites, the total hasn’t budged off the opener even though most of the action is on the Over (according to Pregame.com) and Chicago’s lineup is terrible vs. right-handed pitching.
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