The 150th Open Championship tees off Thursday on the Old Course at St. Andrews in Fife, Scotland. The winner will receive a record-breaking $2.5 million and the Claret Jug. Below, we tab the best value prop bets on a trio of golfers among the 2022 Open Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.
This is the 4th and final major of the PGA season with reigning champion Collin Morikawa (No. 27 in Golfweek/Sagarin rankings) vying to be the 1st back-to-back Open winner since Irishman Pádraig Harrington (ranked 205th) in 2007-08. The Old Course is a par 72 playing at 7,313 yards.
The 156-golfer field includes Masters champion Scottie Schefler (No. 3), PGA Championship winner Justin Thomas (No. 5) and U.S. Open champion Matthew Fitzpatrick (No. 11).
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2022 Open Championship best bets
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 5:21 p.m. ET.
Cameron Smith
Let’s buy the dip on Smith, who missed the cut at the 2022 U.S. Open, finished T-48 at the RBC Canadian Open and has a minus-0.62 Strokes Gained (SG) vs. expectations over his last 5 events, per DataGolf.com.
Otherwise, Smith is 4th in the world for total SG this year and 1st in expected PGA Tour victories, according to DataGolf.com.
Smith is among the best putters in the world and ranks 3rd in SG: Approach and 1st in Par 4 Efficiency 350-400 in this field over the last 36 rounds, according to FantasyNational.com. There are 7 par 4s within 350-400 yards at the Old Course.
Lastly, the Open Championship tends to be a birdie-fest. The last 6 Open Championships have an average winning score of 14-under as do the last 5 Open Championships played at St. Andrews. Smith is 3rd in this field for both birdies-or-better and birdies gained over the last 36 rounds.
- $12.50 for winner (+3000) to earn a $375 profit
- $12.50 for top-5 finish (+550) to earn a $68.75 profit
- $25 for top-10 finish (+300) to earn a $75 profit
- $100 for top-20 finish (+130) to earn a $130 profit
Will Zalatoris
Zalatoris missing the cut last week at the Genesis Scottish Open stunk, but in reality that’s the most likely reason for Willy Z’s juicy Open Championship odds. He has bounced back from his 2 previous missed cuts with a 5th at the Memorial and 2nd at the PGA Championship.
More importantly, Zalatoris is playing well and his game fits St. Andrews. Zalatoris is 5th in total SG over his last 24 rounds and is gaining more than 2 strokes per round on the field in windy weather conditions for his career, according to FantasyNational.com.
Zalatoris’s putting has been his Achilles heel but that hasn’t been the case in majors. He has gained 4.5 strokes on the greens in the 3 majors this year, per DataGolf.com. Zalatoris is 9th in the field over his last 36 rounds in 3-putt avoidance.
Finally, Zalatoris is 3rd in SG: Total over the last 36 rounds in my custom stat model courtesy of FantasyNational.com with the 2nd-best SG: Ball-striking (BS) and Par 4 Efficiency: 350-400.
- $12.50 for winner (+3000) to earn a $375 profit
- $12.50 for top-5 finish (+550) to earn a $68.75 profit
- $25 for top-10 finish (+300) to earn a $75 profit
- $100 for top-20 finish (+135) to earn a $135 profit
[tipico]
Tony Finau
Finau’s performance in majors has been a blemish on his career resume but he’s finished in the top-20 in 4 of his 5 Open Championship appearances, including 2 top-10 finishes.
Finau has been locked in lately. He is 3rd in SG: Total over the last 24 rounds, and top-7 in SG for Off-the-tee, BS, tee-to-green (T2G) and short game, according to FantasyNational.com. Finau has 4 top-10 finishes in his last 7 events and 3 top-5 finishes.
In addition, Finau is 9th in SG: Par 4, 7th in 3-putt avoidance and 4th in Scrambling over the last 36 rounds. SG: Par 4 was used since 14 of the 18 holes at the Old Course are par 4s and scrambling is an important stat for any major.
We are getting a good price on Finau because of his poor track record in majors and this is Finau’s 1st Open at the Old Course. But, Finau’s game is perfect for links-style golf and it wouldn’t be surprising for Finau to win his 1st major and the Claret Jug.
- $12.50 for winner (+4000) to earn a $500 profit
- $12.50 for top-5 finish (+750) to earn a $93.75 profit
- $25 for top-10 finish (+380) to earn a $95 profit
- $100 for top-20 finish (+200) to earn a $200 profit
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Golfweek:
- ‘It sucked’: Collin Morikawa hands over Claret Jug, begins British Open prep at Old Course to reclaim it
- Lynch: Greg Norman’s exclusion from the Open Championship at St. Andrews should be cheered—he’s earned it
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